Sunday, November 03, 2024

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @RealDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @CollinRugg
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ChucckCallesto
  • @ImMeme0
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @JoeDanMedia
  • @Bannons_WarRoom
  • STEVE BANNON: The Facts Are On Our Side, Joe Biden Never Got 15 Million More Votes Than Barack Obama, IMPOSSIBLE. We Didn't Pick Up Net 12 House Seats When We Lost the Presidential, IMPOSSIBLE. We Didn't Win 19/20 Bellwethers And Lose The Presidency, IMPOSSIBLE. You Generated Phony Ballots Of Folks That Don't Exist. (video)
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @Greg_Price11
  • @w_terrence
  • @charliekirk11
  • @realLizUSA
  • President Trump has had 100,000+ people turn out for rallies in California, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. He’s sold out Madison Square Garden, and arenas in Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Phoenix. The polls are BOGUS. It’s a landslide. (video)
  • @BoLoudon
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @RealMacReport
  • @RealJamesWoods
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @DC_Draino
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @amuse
  • @irrationalhenry
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TrueTheVote
  • @GetOutspokenUSA
  • @FFT1776
  • @LeadingReport
  • @GrageDustin
  • No, this is not a video from a war-torn country in the Middle East. This is the aftermath of the Minneapolis Riots after Governor Tim Walz allowed it to burn four consecutive nights. Kamala Harris bailed out the violent rioters. This is their legacy. Vote accordingly. (video)
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.52 +.28%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 -.14%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 02, 2024

Today's Headlines

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @Curiousityfirst
  • @thinktankfranks
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @GOP
  • @LaraLogan
  • @CollinRugg
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @nicksortor
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @RealJamesWoods
  • @ImMeme0
  • Why spend millions of dollars on voting machines that have repeatedly proven to keep malfunctioning? This happened in New Jersey. (video)
  • @stephiebeltinck
  • @americasgreat
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @catturd2
  • @RealMacReport
  • @MTGrepp
  • @amuse
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @PeterBernegger
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @ShadowofEzra  
  • @ReedTimmerUSA
  • @CharlieKirk11 
  • @TheLeoTerrell
  • @IGSquawk 

Friday, November 01, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • “If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.” ― George Washington. Yeah. (pic)
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @Athan_K
  • @TaraBull808
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BillboardChris
  • @MTGrepp
  • @LaraLogan
  • @CollinRugg
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @greg_price11
  • @InsiderGeo
  • The US Ministry of Defense announced a $425 million aid package to Ukraine. Ammunition for NASAMS and HIMARS; Stinger missiles; equipment and ammunition to counter unmanned aerial systems (c-UAS); air-to-ground ammunition; 155-mm and 105-mm artillery shells; tube-launched missiles with optical tracking and guided guidance (TOW); Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank complexes; Stryker armored personnel carriers; small arms and ammunition; medical equipment; equipment and ammunition for explosive works; spare parts, auxiliary equipment, services, training and transportation.
  • @nicksortor
  • @_Rob_29
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @mtgeenee
  • @ImMeme0
  • @JeffClarkUS
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @johncardillo
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @AlMeyer19
  • Last night in Levittown, PA, there were no lights, & people were forced to vote by cell phone light. Today, in Bucks, we are seeing wait times of 5 + hours to vote. More of the same tonight! Bucks election officials did the bare minimum. VOTER SUPPRESSION! STAY IN LINE! (video)
  • @amuse
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @RickyDoggin
  • @DC_Draino
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @shaunmmaguire 
  • @CarolineWren
  • @CharlieKirk11 
  • @EricLDaugh

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Pre-Election Window-Dressing, Medical/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.02 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.20 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -6.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.1 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(351 of 500 reporting) +8.7% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.44 -.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% +1.0 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 373.03 +.61: Growth Rate +31.2% +.4 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -21.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.5 basis point (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% -34.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% -4.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.9%(+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.6%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +647 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.3% 2) REITs -.8% 3) Gold & Silver -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CSTL, GEO, ZYME, MOD, ACT, IMO, NSP, CTRA, ARCB, KTB, MDU, ETR, EVER, MTG, BJRI, WGS, CVNA, MSTR, TDS, WEAV, W, CAMT, AMCR, RDN, FOXF, VRRM, AES, NVT, ONTO, SMCI, ESNT, RMAX, AEHR, DBRG and MYGN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XRX 2) EMR 3) DBRG 4) TEAM 5) CAR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EPIX 2) CMLS 3) DBRG 4) MYGN 5) ESNT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XAR 5) XLV