Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 -2.8
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 54.6% of Issues Advancing, 42.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .68 -1.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$226.5M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
• 53.8% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.6 +.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.2 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 22,200.4 -.17%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (FEAR) +4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.5 -3.7%
  
• Vix 14.8 +3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -18.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.6 +1.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -1.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.8 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.43 +.43:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.15 +5.13: Growth Rate +25.1% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 34.4 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +16.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% +1.0 basis point
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.4% -1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +2.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (-3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.3%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +162 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.7% 2) I-Banks +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACHR, BTDR, SMLR, SKYT, LUNR, HUT, RCAT, INSW, RGTI, DQ, MSTR, QNST, SCHL, NNE, DAVE, CLW, CLMT, PPTA, OKLO, OUST, ZIM, ALAB, TSLA, RDW, FORM, ARM, BCAT, OUST, ATAT, TRMD, BNED and MEOH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TTIE 2) PRMW 3) FREY 4) LITM 5) ESSC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CMND 2) NEUE 3) BTCS 4) CREV 5) IONQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLP 4) XLY 5) XLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 223K versus 220K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1881K versus 1874K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CRVL) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Fed's weekly balance sheet report could also impact global trading on Thursday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -25.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.8 +5.3
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 58.4% of Issues Advancing, 39.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .71 -7.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$90.2M
  
• 26 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 52.8% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 +8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.0 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.6 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 22,291.9 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 -26.1%
  
• Vix 15.9 -5.3%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +17.6%