Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banking -2.3% 2) Banks -2.3% 3) Internet -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DAVA, APPN, GRMN, NCLH, PRAA, NWSA, PSN, CCL, PRAA, UPBD, BAND, RXRTX, COCO, LAMR, HOOD, DVA, WMT, DLO, WING, KVYO, ECO, AVPT, PLTR, TDOC, OSW, GLBE, FIHL, SDGR, ACVA, JXN, IOT, RDDT, FVRR, INOD, RDW, BYRN, SEDG, AXON, TEM, WGS, CORT, SHEN, FCN, APP, CVNA, WRD, NICE, EPAM, VTLE, FRPT, NRDS, TFII and TRUP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ANGI 2) TECK 3) SABR 4) SWTX 5) DBX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FRPT 2) CVNA 3) EPAM 4) JMIA 5) GRAB

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XBI 3) KIE 4) GDXJ 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.6% 2) Homebuilding +1.1% 3) Energy +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• U, AMPL, CADL, MD, CSTM, FTAI, HAS, DBRG, GDS, VNET, CWAN, SHAK, DRD, SWTX, BAX, AMN, BABA, RGEN, MFC, CYTK, BILI, FPI, NBIS, STM, HNRG, SBLK, COLD, EWTX, SMMT, HMY, SKT, BMRN, LKQ, ORA, MRUS, KAR, ICLR, UTZ, KC, LAUR, PAAS, REPL, JF, VAL, ORKA, CNR, DRS, MOD, OEC, SJM, METC, CIB, RS, ADEA, VALE, WB, BRKR, AGI and VICR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WBD 2) HLF 3) CYTK 4) YUM 5) FOXA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AMPL 2) SHAK 3) CWAN 4) BAX 5) MD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) IGV 4) IGV 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (OIS)/.06
• (TDS)/-.34
• (VIPS)/5.06
  

After the Close: 

• (HE)/.39

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI report for Feb. is estimated to rise to 51.5 versus 51.2 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI report for Feb. is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 52.9 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.7 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Feb. 
• Existing Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 4.13M versus 4.24M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Bloomberg Feb. US Economic Survey, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 -4.5
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 34.9% of Issues Advancing, 62.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .81 -23.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$322.6M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 54.0% (-3.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.4 -4.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 77.7 -.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.4 -.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,240.7 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 +15.6%
  
• Vix 15.9 +4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 +13.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.4 -.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and real estate  shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 +1.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .39 +15.6%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.5 -.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.7 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.72 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.9 unch. 

• ISE Sentiment Index 184.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 +18.7%

• NYSE Arms .90 +31.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$254.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.6 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.01 +.67%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 161.0 -13

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 +.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 135.5 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 basis points +3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +2.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 151.2 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 88.1 +.06%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.2 +.17%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 basis points +.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.0 basis point -2.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.5 +.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 594.0 -5.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .5 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(403 of 500 reporting) +10.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.14 unch.:  Growth Rate +16.1% unch., P/E 22.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.87% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 405.93 +.71: Growth Rate +31.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 34.2 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 -48.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.9% -1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.4%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -149 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long