Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -1.9% 2) Oil Service -1.3% 3) Insurance -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FTK, GGAL, FLS, CRWD, BMA, BBAR, MRUS, GTLS, CLBR, DLTR, ANAB and ASAN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SABR 2) ASAN 3) PENN 4) BBWI 5) FBTC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEOG 2) ABL 3) NPWR 4) DLTR 5) OBT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLB 3) XLP 4) IBB 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.4% 2) Video Gaming +2.1% 3) Semis +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APLD, REVG, RDW, GWRE, TSSI, ZLAB, GRRR, ASTS, SBET, RYET, AEHR, RAPP, STM, CHA, PLAY, CDNA, HQY, MP, LQDA, VG, FUTU, LEGN, ERO, POWI, SHG, BKSY, DAVA, ON, INDV, MRVL, KRUS, SERV, CRDO, LASR, MNSO, CRWV, VERA, NBIS, TYRA, LEU, OPFI, ICLR, SQM, THO, LITE, OLLI, CMG, PSN, TIMB, BC, OUST, AMSC, MDB, CLPT, DNLI, SEMR, CELH, BASE and JHX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXC 2) TSLZ 3) ASAN 4) UMAC 5) ON

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) YEXT 2) APLD 3) ASTS 4) GWRE 5) SGMT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MSTY 2) SMH 3) XLK 4) XRT 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BF/B)/.34
• (CIEN)/.52
• (CBRL)/.21
• (TTC)/1.40 

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/1.57
• (DOCU)/.81
• (GES)/-.69
• (LULU)/2.58
• (WOOF)/-.02
• (RBRK)/-.32
• (MTN)/10.04
• (ZUMZ)/-.77
• (RH)/-.08
• (VSCO)/.31 

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May. 
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for April is estimated to shrink to -$66.1B versus -$140.5B in March.
• Final Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings for 1Q.
• Initial Jobless for last week are estimated to fall to 235K versus 240K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1910K versus 1919K prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, ECB meeting, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, Deutsche Bank Industrials/Materials Conference, Piper Sandler Exchange/Trading Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, (PYPL) annual meeting, (PLTR) annual meeting, (CRM) annual meeting, (ALAB) annual meeting, (LYFT) annual meeting, (EME) annual meeting, (DLR) annual meeting, (NFLX) annual meeting, (FLUT) annual meeting, (TDW) general meeting, (MYGN) annual meeting, (ASO) annual meeting, (WMT) annual meeting and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 +1.9
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 51.6% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.36 +33.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$.59M
  
• 77 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 41.6% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.3 +1.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.3 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.43 -.02%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,359.4 +.25%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 -9.2%
  
• Vix 17.7 +.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -9.7%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Congress is making America bankrupt.
• This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. It’s the US National Debt. Mammoth spending bills are bankrupting America! ENOUGH! (graph)
• In November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people.
• USAID funds terrorism.Yes.
• Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• South Florida Emerges As Epicenter Of Housing Weakness. (graph)
• New... I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country. The individual, Yunqing Jian, is alleged to have smuggled a dangerous fungus called "Fusarium graminearum," which is an agroterrorism agent, into the U.S. to research at the University of Michigan, where she works. This fungus can cause a disease called "head blight," a disease of wheat, barley, maize, and rice, causing significant health issues in both humans and livestock. It is responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide each year.
• Palantir Co-Founder Joe Lonsdale & Former Exec Refute NYT Report Warning Over Surveillance 'Master List'.
• Is This Stunning Censorship A Glimpse Into Our Own Future?
• *FAA SEEKS COMPANY TO BUILD NEW AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM.
• Wasting Away In Wind-And-Solarville.
• Remaking K–12 Classes For A Healthier America.
• After spending almost 6 years at #Palantir, I know something about what they do and what they don't do. As a result, I want to address the inaccuracies in the 6/30 @nytimes article that's been picked up by multiple outlets this week. (thread)
• It's Treasury Vs The Fed: With Fed Sidelined, Bessent Unleashes Record $10 Billion Bond Buyback.
• Did The Feds Label You A COVID "Violent Extremist"?
• *FEDERAL RESERVE LIFTS WELLS FARGO ASSET CAP RESTRICTION.

• @MarioNawful  

• ARIZONA DEM GOVERNOR VETOES CHINA LAND BAN NEAR MILITARY BASES. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs just vetoed a bill preventing China from buying land near military bases, nuclear plants, and critical infrastructure, sparking outrage from security hawks. State Senate Majority Leader Janae Shamp: "This politically motivated veto is utterly insane. She is an obstructionist against safeguarding our citizens from threats." The bill would've banned China from owning 30% or more stake in Arizona property near strategic assets. Hobbs claimed it was "ineffective at counter-espionage" despite Chinese attempts to lease buildings next to Luke Air Force Base. Twenty-two states have already passed foreign land ownership restrictions.
• SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: WE DIDN'T GET HERE IN A YEAR, WE WON'T GET OUT OF IT IN A YEAR. "The way to think about this is every $300 billion is 1% of GDP. And as a clip that you just said, or you just showed where I said we didn't get here in a year, we're not gonna get out of it in a year. That we have to bring this down gradually because we want to do two things. We want to cut and constrain spending, and we want to grow the economy and what Senator Paul is, is asking for or advocating for, I think could cause a sudden stop in the economy." (video)
• IRAN SIGNALS POSSIBLE DEAL ON ENRICHMENT IF DONE AT HOME. Iran has hinted at accepting a regional nuclear fuel program, but only if it’s inside Iran. This marks a rare chance to defuse years of nuclear tension. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff floated the proposal, linking Iran with Gulf neighbors like the UAE and Qatar. Tehran says any outside enrichment is a deal-breaker. Talks are ongoing, with Tehran pressing for clarity on sanctions relief. Eyes on the next move.
• DAVID SACKS EXPLAINS WHY AI MORATORIUM IS "SMALL GOVERNMENT POSITION". Trump's AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks offered a thoughtful response to MTG's concerns about the GOP bill's AI provision, arguing that preventing state regulation actually protects innovation: "While I agree with MTG on most issues (especially Ukraine), in this case I believe that a temporary moratorium on state AI regulation is the correct small government position... The alternative is a patchwork of 50 different regulatory regimes driven by the AI Doomerism that is becoming a dominant strain on the American and European Left." Sacks warns that left-wing Silicon Valley billionaires like Dustin Moskovitz are funding fear campaigns to create restrictive AI laws. Blue states already have initiatives underway, with some Republicans falling for "China Hawk" rhetoric about over-regulation. He argues America needs "moderate and innovation-friendly" federal standards to win the AI race, not 50 conflicting state laws creating regulatory chaos.
• REP. SCOTT PERRY: ELON IS RIGHT TO CALL OUT HOUSE LEADERSHIP. "So @elonmusk is right to call out House Leadership. I wish I had a nickel for every time the @freedomcaucus sounded the alarm and nobody listened, only to find out the hard way we were right all along. We expect MASSIVE improvements from the Senate before it gets back to the House." (pic)
• SECRETARY KENNEDY: THE FDA WILL MONITOR AND COLLECT DATA FOR EVERY ADVERSE OUTCOME WITH THE COVID VACCINE. "I want to address those of you who have anxieties about @US_FDA’s limited approval of a new mRNA COVID vaccine for high-risk populations. Moderna has agreed to a true placebo-controlled trial of the new vaccine, which is similar to the existing mRNA vaccine but uses a smaller protein. The FDA will monitor and collect data throughout the trial for every adverse outcome, not just a table list of expected outcomes. FDA will scrutinize every aspect of the trial. We will deliver on our promise to use gold standard science and common sense."
• BREAKING: MTG OPPOSES GOP MEGABILL AFTER DISCOVERING HIDDEN AI POWER GRAB. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene just turned against the GOP "Big Beautiful Bill" after exposing buried provisions that would ban states from regulating AI for a decade, calling it a violation of state rights. Rep. MTG: "Full transparency, I did not know about this section on pages 278-279 of the OBBB that strips states of the right to make laws or regulate AI for 10 years. I am adamantly OPPOSED to this and it is a violation of state rights and I would have voted NO if I had known this was in there." Greene warns the provision gives federal government total control over AI regulation just as experts admit they have "no idea what it may be capable of." She's demanding the Senate strip it out. This is what happens with massive bills - hidden provisions that expand federal power slip through.
• AI STARTUPS ARE WRITING CODE FASTER THAN HUMANS AND RAISING BILLIONS WHILE THEY’RE AT IT. AI now writes code for apps, games, and websites faster and cheaper than people.

• @TheTranscript 

• $AMZN CFO: "“In 2024, we invested approximately $78B in capital expenditures, which was up roughly $30B from 2023. That incremental $30B primarily went into building out technology infrastructure to support generative AI services — things like data centers, custom silicon, and high-performance servers."
• CrowdStrike misses on revenues, beats on EPS. CEO: "We started the fiscal year with record Q1 large deal & MSSP momentum alongside sustained 97% gross retention and consistently strong net retention" $CRWD: -7% AH. (pic)

• @GenFlynn

• Heads need to roll inside the administration. And what’s up with Pompeo visiting Ukraine?

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• BREAKING: Target OPTS OUT of Pride month & replaced its Pride collection with an America First Summer display. Target also recently scrapped its DEI program.

• @outbreakupdates 

• JUST IN: U.S. authorities have stopped a plot by two Chinese agents to smuggle a toxic fungus into a Michigan lab that could have wreaked havoc on the entirety of America’s food production capabilities.

• @GrageDustin

• JUST IN: An ambulance in Minneapolis had to detour because a group of people in thongs created a blockade yelling: "we love wh-res" “we love d-ck" “honk if you love str-ppers" The Grain Belt bridge was blocked for over 25 minutes during peak traffic. Happy Pride Month.

• @C_3C_3

• Don’t worry Lindsey Graham’s $411,634 hotel bill in Ukraine was approved. By… Lindsey Graham. Nothing to see here folks! (pic)

• @The_Real_Fly

• VACCINE QUEEN IS NOW ON THE BOARD OF PALANTIR.

• @IanJaeger29

• Why is Mike Pompeo in Ukraine???

• @Trump_Army_

• President Trump: I refuse to bend the knee to their next endless war in Ukraine. I want peace. They want money, and they want conflict. Even if it means walking us to the brink of WWIII. (video)

• @TheBritLad 
  

• BREAKING : The Hungarian government have revealed they will be releasing a documentary exposing the “USAID” scandal. This film will highlight how millions of dollars have been directed towards supporting left-wing political movements in Hungary. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.0 +.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.45% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +.13%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.02%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher .  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -2.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .65 -50.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.9 +2.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.32 -.48%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -3.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +5.0

• Total Put/Call .98 +18.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +16.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.1 -3.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 238.0 +13.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.9 -1.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.0 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 basis points -1.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.4 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.3 -1.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 97.2 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.77 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 basis points -.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -.25 basis point -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 618.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.15% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.0 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.7 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.7 -4.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +12.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.75 -.09:  Growth Rate +8.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +32.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 428.40 -.04: Growth Rate +23.9% unch., P/E 32.8 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.32 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.6 -.2
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.6% +80.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -20.0 basis points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.3% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 54.1%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +330 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/financial/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long