Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, US-Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Sector Rotation, Financial/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.7 -6.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .40 -46.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.3 +4.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.02 +.34%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 193.67 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.81 -.38%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.4 -5.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 197.0 +37.0

• Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 +23.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$69.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 +.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.7 +.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 190.0 -10.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.48 +.52%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 127.95 -.38%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +.11%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.5 +.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 82.2 -.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.93 -.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.5 basis points +1.0 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 4.25 basis point +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 600.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .9 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.0 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.22 +.05:  Growth Rate +10.6% unch., P/E 22.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 447.39 +.19: Growth Rate +19.8% unch., P/E 33.2 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.66 +19.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.8 +.9
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -4.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +8.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 62.9% (+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 46.3%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 78.0% +3.0 percentage points
• India 81.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Japan 53.0% unch.
• South Korea  47.0% -3.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +362 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +135 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -4.4% 2) Electrification -2.4% 3) Education -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DDOG, RGLD, SKE, CLBR, APGE, CHEF, MBAV, AEVA, PSIX and FICO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KEY 2) BTBT 3) CORZ 4) SIRI 5) VOR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RUN 2) FICO 3) NEE 4) FSLR 5) DDOG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLI 3) XLP 4) XLY 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +5.6% 2) Energy +3.5% 3) Semis +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SBET, ADUR, SOUN, VTLE, TIGR, PGNY, CC, VKTX, DQ, NTLA, SRPT, ETON, KMTS, ALB, JOBY, FUTU, DVN, INTC, GT, CRSP, JOYY, INSP, GFS, SQM, TDW, HPK, BEAM, BKSY, TBBK, OXY, KB, CNXC, OLN, MMSI, VAL, CVE, ZIM, FCX, PSFE, BLD, XYF, DOW, ANAB, LIND, HES, SOFI, OZK, YMM, SDM, ENVX, CVX, GMAB, VNOM, PUK, INVX, LEA, MAN, TME and PRGS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMCR 2) BTBT 3) GNL 4) AMPX 5) BRSL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OCC 2) WOLF 3) RXRX 4) CYBL 5) FCX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SOXX 3) XLC 4) IYF 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/1.58

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in April. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,878,250 barrels versus a +3,845,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -221,140 barrels versus a +4,188,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -907,140 barrels versus a -1,710,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.36% versus a +.2% gain prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC June 18th Meeting Minutes. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for July and the CJS Securities Investor Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -2.2
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +32.9% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$26.1M
  
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 53.4% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.1 -.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 77.3% +4.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.3 +.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.97 -1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (EXTREME GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -21.0%
  
• Vix 16.6 -6.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -6.6%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 74.0% -1.0 percentage point
• India 84.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Japan 56.0% +3.0 percentage points
• South Korea  55.0% +5.0 percentage points

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• South Korea said it will fix rules and regulations to address US demands to lower non-tariff barriers. 
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Donald Trump he nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, using a visit to the White House to further cement the pair’s relationship as the US presses for a ceasefire in Gaza.
• President Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with "the Anti-American policies of BRICS" as the US continues to negotiate tariffs with many trading partners.  
• President Trump unveiled the first in a wave of promised letters that threaten to impose higher tariff rates on key trading partners, but suggested that he was still open to additional negotiations.  
• Samsung's profit shrank more than expected after encountering hiccups in plans to sell cutting-edge AI memory to Nvidia.
• Trump said he’d ship more weapons to Ukraine, marking an apparent reversal after the Pentagon halted flows of some air-defense missiles and artillery shells to the country.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• The CDC ended its emergency response for bird flu as the outbreak that sickened dozens of people, spread to cattle and drove up egg prices has abated. 
• Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that already had been pared back by his $3.4 trillion budget bill designed to end green energy incentives.  
• Exclusive: Apple’s top executive in charge of AI models is leaving for Meta, another setback in the iPhone maker’s struggling AI efforts.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• According to the United Nations, gangs now control 90% of Port-au-Prince, and more than 4,000 people have been murdered this year.
• China Could Push Russia To Attack NATO Member In Taiwan Distraction Ploy: Rutte.
• After slashing his year-end S&P price target (to 6,200) near the lows, Goldman's Davis Kostin just did the opposite and with the S&P at all time highs, he now expects the index to close at 6,600 (based on a 22x P/E forecast). (pic)  
• *JAPAN 30-YEAR BOND YIELD RISES 6 BASIS POINTS TO 3.025%.
• Impact of new tariff on Japan (if remains unchanged): JPM strategist Rie Nishihara expects a reciprocal tariff of 24% will lead to 0.4%-0.9% drag in Japan GDP and 7% decline in TOPIX 2025 EPS. The downside scenario estimated by Rie for NKY is 34,000. 
• China Smartphone Sales Plunge In May; Device Camera Counts Peak.
• "Troops Could Vanish Like Squid": New Bio-Inspired Camo Lets US Soldiers Evade Sight And High-Tech Sensors Instantly.
• *TRUMP: WE HAVE SCHEDULED IRAN TALKS. *TRUMP DECLINES TO SAY WHEN IRAN TALKS ARE SCHEDULED FOR.
• 'Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste': Press & Pundits Push False Story On Trump Cuts Causing Texas Tragedy. 
• The US has offered an agreement to the EU that it would keep a 10% baseline tariff on all EU goods, except for some sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits: Politico.
• Oil Closes At Session High As Houthi Rebels Hit Second Greek Vessel In Red Sea.
• Doctor Faces 35 Years In Prison For Issuing COVID-19 Cards To No-Vax Patients.
• US Insurers Are Refusing To Cover "Climate-Change" Risk-Zones.  
• Tariff Tantrum 2.0 Sends Stocks & Bonds Lower; Oil & The Dollar Surge. 

• @CNBC 

• Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CoreWeave CEO calls Oracle a 'formidable competitor'.
• Waymo to begin testing in Philadelphia with safety drivers behind the wheel.

• @GatewayPundit

• Wait, What? If There Was No Epstein Client List Then Why Did NY Courts Refuse The Gateway Pundit’s Request for the List in Based on an Anonymous ‘John Doe’. Who Was On the List?

• @MarioNawful 

• HIS ROBOT BUILDS HOUSES WHILE HUMANS HAVE LUNCH. Some guy spent $500,000 on a giant machine that literally prints houses with concrete. It cranks out walls designed to last 300 years, with perfect slots for pipes and wires, plus insulation and steel reinforcements for extra strength. No crew needed, no coffee breaks. It runs nonstop and cuts building costs by up to 45%.

• @GenFlynn

• Memorandum For: The @realDonaldTrump administration, We the people are fed up with having tons more evidence come out regarding Russia-Gate yet sadly, no one is getting arrested. Hell, there doesn’t even appear to be an investigation even though they tried to overthrow the presidency of these United States! When will people be held accountable for undermining and in some cases, falsely imprisoning people based on an
  @HillaryClinton , @BarackObama and @JohnBrennan political hit job? We’re waiting…

• @Cfojs

• I am convinced that Trump made a deal with the Senate and Congressional holdouts that they would not release the Epstein files if they passed the One Big Beautiful Bill.

• @TaraBull808

• The reason the FBI wouldn't let the Epstein client list come out in court is because if they did, their blackmail would no longer be useful, and the CIA would lose their control over all the powerful people they spent decades setting up. - Julian Assange. Everything is starting to add up.

• @bennyjohnson

• Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell were both charged by the Feds for operating a massive sex trafficking ring that involved ‘thousands’ of victims. They were both found guilty in federal court. One of their clients is pictured here; Prince Andrew the Duke of York. He paid an Epstein victim tens of millions for her silence. Virginia Roberts’ story is horrific and well documented. Now she’s dead. To say there are thousands of ‘victims’ in a convicted sex trafficking ring and then to say there were no ‘customers’ when the operation happened right before our very eyes insults our intelligence. Trafficking women to no one? I don’t buy it. There are other dark forces at play here…. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - Orwell

• @GlobalMktObserv

• Hedge fund short levels are historically elevated: Hedge funds' long/short ratio fell to the lowest in 1.5 years. The ratio has fallen even below the February 2025 level before the US stock market dropped. Hedge funds are betting on a market pullback. (graph)

• @AdameMedia

• EPSTEIN WAS MOSSAD. THE EVIDENCE:

• @MJTruthUltra

• In Maine, The Chinese Drug Mafia is buying up Schools, Churches, Recycling Plants, nursing homes, Flight Hangers, old Mills, etc… Maine politicians have committed treason against their citizens by allowing illegal Chinese drug operations to flourish unchecked. These covert enterprises aiding foreign criminal networks, are often tied directly to the Chinese Communist Party, have completely infiltrated rural communities… (video)

• @FinanceLancelot 

• DOJ releases 10 hours of surveillance video they say proves Epstein killed himself. The official story for the past 5 years was the cameras weren't working and the guards fell asleep. Now, the official story has changed. I wonder why...

• @thereallorilove

• Alina Habba on Piers Morgan in February: “It’s incredibly disturbing. We have flight logs, information, names...that will come out.” (video)

• @Ultrafrog17

• Epstein's former employee, Maria Farmer, alleged that his residences had pinhole cameras recording every single thing his clients were doing. There were computer rooms bigger than houses collecting this information. This was obviously used to garner blackmail and hold leverage over these people. "All of Epstein's residences had these mechanical rooms and tunnel systems. I know this because Epstein told me... These rooms were enormous - bigger than houses. I have no idea why anyone needs so many computers in one room. There were pinhole cameras to record everything on every estate. The cameras were ubiquitous. You couldn't see them unless they were pointed out to you." I don't care who you are, whether you are liberal or conservative, we do not believe that Epstein was not blackmailing anyone and that Ghislaine went to jail for trafficking children to no one.

• @HustleBitch_

• MARCH: Bondi says the FBI has "tens of thousands" of Epstein videos. APRIL: Patel says they vanished. JULY: DOJ says no client list. No names. Suicide.. Case closed. They had the tapes. Now they have amnesia. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 +1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?: EU 75% +18.0 percentage points, India 85.0% unch., Japan 53.0% +10.0 percentage points 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.03 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.3 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.38% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.