Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Chairman Powell's Commentary, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.4 +5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.7 +10.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(231 of 500 reporting) +7.0% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.87 +.13:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 456.53 +.48: Growth Rate +21.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -27.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 -.1
• US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.4% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 51.9% (+16.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.0%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 20.0% -36.0 percentage points
• South Korea  56.0% -17.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 19.0% -9.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.4% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Oil Service -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PPG, BLCO, AER, WIX, CARR, EDU, PANW, RSG, MDLZ, HSBC, VRSK, GEHC, GRMN, NAVI, ESS, NVO, SMG, XPRO, TT, FCX, NXT, ODFL, TKR, DRS, IEX, UNM, ENTG, FVRR, CMCO, OI, CWH, ARCB, NEGG, CHKP, CAR, SLGN and MNRO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) REPL 2) CFLT 3) FUBO 4) SBUX 5) CRDF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNBR 2) ENTG 3) CRDF 4) ARCB 5) CAR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SOXX 3) XLI 4) KRE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.2% 2) Electrification +1.7% 3) Semis +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SDM, WING, FTAI, BHVN, LC, FSS, TER, REZI, GNRC, HOG, WGS, BLKB, ATRC, ZWS, CMPR, BBNX, FDP, BMNR, SEDG, QURE, GENI, IDCC, PEN, CHEF, SITE, HUM, EETSY, HIMS, VRDN, ALMU, GLXY, VFC, RRR, MRVL, ALAB, THRY, ALHC, ASH, BE, BAND, UPB, SBET, EA, REYN, BG, CAKE, SYM, NMRK, TW, FCFS, CECO, NBR, BTSG, UPST, RIGL, VRNS, RBLX, RBRK, GH, PCH, EXE, SMCI, APLS, TTAM, HAYW, HESM, SF, CVS, RSI, GRFS, PTCT, GRFS, RNA, AEP, SONO, GKOS, ALNY, RMBS, SPOT, GSK, NNE, UMBF, TMDX, TRS, CVLT, AZN, HUBB, ASC and IVT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IEF 2) INDA 3) CTRA 4) LC 5) PARA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WING 2) LC 3) FTAI 4) FSS 5) TER

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) MSTY 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) GNR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.88
• (AMG)/5.29
• (AGCO)/1.08
• (APD)/2.99
• (APTV)/1.82
• (MT)/1.15
• (BAX)/.61
• (BIIB)/3.90
• (BWA)/1.09
• (BMY)/1.07
• (CCJ)/-.04
• (CRS)/2.07
• (CVS)/1.46
• (EME)/5.74
• (EXC)/.37
• (HWM)/.87
• (ICE)/1.77
• (IDCC)/2.19
• (IP)/.39
• (LAUR)/.72
• (MA)/4.03
• (BTU)/.00
• (PWR)/2.44
• (RBLX)/-.36
• (SHAK)/.38
• (CI)/7.16
• (VMC)/2.53
• (XPO)/.99 
• (AES)/.42
• (NTRA)/-.62
• (VRNA)/.03 

After the Close: 

• (AMZN)/1.33
• (AAPL)/1.43
• (BZH)/.42
• (BE)/.01
• (BOOT)/1.55
• (CLX)/2.20
• (COIN)/1.25
• (NET)/.18
• (CUZ)/.69
• (LOCO)/.24
• (FSLR)/2.66
• (ILMN)/1.01 
• (IR)/.80
• (KLAC)/8.56
• (MSTR)/-.10
• (MIR)/.10
• (SPXC)/1.45
• (SYK)/3.07 

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for July. 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in May.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.9% gain in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 223K versus 217K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1953K versus 1955K prior.  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to rise to 42.0 versus 40.4 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (RL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.3 -2.2
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 44.8% of Issues Advancing, 52.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -17.6% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$20.9M
  
• 57 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 52.2% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.3.2 +.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.9% +1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.5 -.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 170.9 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 69.0 (GREED) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.0 +2.3%
  
• Vix 16.0 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +3.6%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 38.0% -18.0 percentage points
• South Korea  62.0% -13.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 26.0% -2.0 percentage points. 

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
• Chinese sovereign bonds are coming under pressure as growing optimism over local stocks drives the correlation between the two markets toward the most extreme levels since the pandemic.
• South Korean officials met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington on Tuesday. 
• The Japanese yen has underperformed all its major peers in the past three months, and it may be at risk of further declines as political risks mount.
• Investors parsing Jerome Powell’s remarks Wednesday for any hint that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to an interest-rate cut might be left wanting .
• Attorney General Pam Bondi demanded "severe accountability" from UCLA after the Justice Department found the university violated federal civil rights laws by failing to stop antisemitic harassment on campus.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge 

• Tsunami Alerts Triggered, Japan Issues Evacuation Warning After 8.7 Earthquake Hits In Russian Waters.
• "I Am Not A Trump Fan": Disturbing Public Statements Surface From Brennan's Hand-Picked Head Of Controversial Assessment.
• And yes, it's all massive below-cost, state subsidized statecraft masking as trade. This is Beijing trying to put the world's auto producers out of business even as domestic carmakers teeter on the verge of collapse, but are propped up by state money. (graph)
• Just commenting here to explain what this chart actually shows, because it's one of the most significant economic stories that's not getting enough attention. China's vehicle exports went from basically zero to 7 million units, and this isn't normal market competition. From 2009-2023, China's government invested $230 billion into the EV industry, with spending accelerating three-fold in recent years. Over 6.6 million vehicles received subsidies up to $2,800 each in 2024 alone. 
• The 9 Supreme Court Cases To Watch Next Term.
• Jefferies: "Although value and small caps have been massive laggards this year, we think the tide could be on the cusp of turning for these stocks."  
• "The US Is Catching Up": Competition With China Over DR Congo Minerals Intensifies.
• BREAKING - All archived posts of former FBI agent Peter Strzok, who helped lead the Trump-Russia hoax, have been removed from the Wayback Machine.
• Dear New Yorkers: Consider Moving To Dallas, TX.
• The MAHA Priority Pursued By Lawmakers On Both Sides Of The Aisle.
• Federal Judge Blocks Big Beautiful Bill's Medicaid Cuts To Planned Parenthood
  .
• These Are The Biggest Risks To The Market And Economy, According To Goldman.
• Stocks Drop, Bonds & Oil Pop As China Agrees To Tariff Truce, Trump Reiterates Russia Threats.  

• @TheTranscript 

• Booking Holdings CEO: "We are pleased to report a strong second quarter with 8% room night growth and a double-digit increase in gross bookings & revenue, reflecting disciplined execution against our strategic initiatives." 
• Visa CEO: "In Q3 and through July 21st, even with the continued uncertainty, consumer spending remains resilient. Within the U.S., while spending growth differed among consumer spend bands, all spend bands in Q3 remain resilient and consistent with past quarters." "all spend bands in Q3 remain resilient and consistent with past quarters." "Both U.S. discretionary and non-discretionary spend growth remain strong, and we see no meaningful impact from tariffs."
• $CDNS CEO: Agentic AI is redefining semiconductor design. "In Q2, we launched Cadence Cerebrus AI Studio, the industry's first Agentic AI, multi-block and multiuser SoC design platform. This technology delivering up to 20% PPA improvement while accelerating chip delivery time by 5x to 10x was endorsed by Samsung and STMicroelectronics at launch".

• @LauraLoomer 

• EXCLUSIVE: Dozens of anti-Trump officials from the CIA and NSC who signed a 2019 national security letter condemning President Trump, which accused him of being a national security threat still have their security clearances, and some of these people still work in the 2nd Trump admin as federal employees and or government contractors. Why the Trump Administration Must Revoke The Security Clearances of The 2019 Anti-Trump National Security Letter Signatories.
• Does President Trump know that Cindy McCain is in charge of the World Food Program? He should ask her what she’s doing with the $10 billion she supposedly oversees for food distribution. If there’s no aid going into Gaza, what is @cindymccain doing with our money? USAID 2.0.
• EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: @VPrasadMDMPH, a newly appointed Trump admin official working at the @US_FDA once said he stabbed a Trump voodoo doll to “curse” Trump for the COVID pandemic. Another massive vetting failure! Incredible. Isn’t it?

• @WallStreetApes

• Blackstone confirmed their top executive Wesley LePatner was killed in the Manhattan headquarters shooting. Report shows Blackstone is behind buying massive amounts of properties all over the United States and increasing rents 38% “A new report is shedding light — It found that one equity firm increased rent prices at nearly double the market rate.” “The new report from the private equity stakeholders project takes a closer look at America's largest landlord. Blackstone is not quite a household name, but for those who have anything to do with business or finance, they are known as the biggest real estate players in the US.” (video)

• @DC_Draino

• I can’t believe we caught Maricopa County election officials ON VIDEO intentionally rigging the voting machines to shut down on election day to stop Kari Lake’s voters and nobody’s been arrested.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Virginia Giuffre stated in her own words that she was working at a spa in Mar-a-Lago when Ghislaine Maxwell approached her — ultimately leading to her being trafficked to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite her story, Giuffre never accused President Trump of any misconduct and even voiced her support for his 2024 presidential run. (video)
• Bill Gates has been given approval to spray synthetic RNA on crops through his company, Terrana Biosciences. The gene-silencing tech bypasses DNA and rewires plants at the RNA level. This means your food, soil, and gut could now be controlled by biotech—with no labels, no consent, and no long-term safety studies. The RNA can linger in soil, spread via pollen, and possibly affect human microbiomes—all under emergency-use laws that protect corporate liability. 

• @amuse 

• ELECTION INTEGRITY: What if ActBlue was simply a massive money laundering operation? It is being alleged that as much as 60% of donations funneled through the platform are from China. Senator Finchem and Whistleblower Shawn Taylor claim they have evidence that ActBlue is involved in real estate fraud and money laundering totaling in the billions in what they call, “The Motherlode of All Financial Crimes”.

• @paulsperry_

• BREAKING: Susan Miller, the Trump-hating ex-CIA analyst who's said to be the lead drafter of the now-discredited/dossier-supported ICA on Trump-Russia, is BFF w/ Caroline Kennedy and also helped write the Mueller Report. She still has TS clearance and is training new CIA recruits.
  Quote

• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: Senate Leader John Thune REFUSES to cancel August recess despite Trump’s plea to clear 100+ nominees (as well as leaving 50 Federal Judge positions open). Thune's current plan is to extend session "a few days." Worse, he’ll gavel in every few days to BLOCK Trump from any recess appointments! The Senate will be on "recess" for approximately 30 days! WHAT IS YOUR MESSAGE FOR
  @LeaderJohnThune?
• JUST IN: House Republican Appropriators have restored FULL FUNDING to the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Trump requested $0. House GOP gave them $315 MILLION back and allows NED to take in more money through government contracts. USAID and NED funded Ukraine's Molfar and VoxUkraine (propaganda outlets), which smeared J.D. Vance and Thomas Massie as "foreign propagandists" and called for their prosecution and removal from office. Elise Stefanik served as a board member of the NED from January 30, 2019, to January 2025.

• @truthwithkari 

• BREAKING: AAP DEMANDS REMOVAL OF RELIGIOUS & PERSONAL VACCINE EXEMPTIONS. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) has just issued a disturbing new policy statement calling on *all* states, territories, and Washington D.C. to eliminate ALL non-medical vaccine exemptions— including those based on religion, conscience, or personal belief. In their words: “The AAP recommends that all states, territories, and the District of Columbia eliminate all nonmedical exemptions from immunizations as a condition of school attendance.” Let’s be clear: this is an open assault on fundamental American freedoms.

• @MetabolicFactor

• Joe Rogan just hosted the most censored doctor in America. Dr. Mary Bowden exposed what really happened during COVID—and the cover-up runs deeper than you think. Here are 8 shocking takeaways they never wanted you to hear: (thread)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It has just been revealed that the amount of child s*x offenders arrested by ICE Houston in the past 6 months has already SURPASSED the child s*x offender arrests for the ENTIRE year of 2024. I voted for this. (video)
• JUST IN: New York AG Letitia James announces lawsuit against President Trump for kicking illegal aliens off SNAP. Yep. Democrats are suing to give welfare to illegal aliens. (video) 

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• How likely is it that undercover government agents helped provoke the Capitol riot? It's Likely- DEM: 59%. IND: 62%. GOP: 74%. All Voters: 65%. J6 Videos: 65% Now Suspect Feds Provoked Riot.

• @MJTruthUltra

• All in favor, say Aye. MTG Just introduced the Clear Skies Act which allows Citizen’s to report Suspicious Activity. Summary: PROHIBITS all weather modification, including geoengineering, cloud seeding, and solar radiation management. CRIMINALIZES weather modification violations, up to $100,000 in fines and/or 5 years in prison per violation. DIRECTS the EPA and DOJ to investigate and prosecute violations. REPEALS all existing federal authorities and executive orders that permit weather modification. CREATES a public reporting system to allow Americans to report suspicious activity and requires the EPA to investigate. “We must get this bill passed. Man should not be playing God with our weather!”

• @Holden_Culotta

• RFK Jr: “If you get poisoned by Coca-Cola, you can stop drinking Coca-Cola. But if you get poisoned by a vaccine, your kids still have to take that vaccine to get to the school.” “If your doctor tells you … there’s some kind of genetic vulnerability that’s affected the older siblings and your third child should not take this vaccine, he’s going to be punished for that.”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 56.0% +24.0 percentage points
• India 10.0% -6.0 percentage points
• South Korea  75.0% +16.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 28.0% +8.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.14%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.7.1 -1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 -.24%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.