Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ARCB)/1.37
• (BCO)/2.08
• (BG)/1.94
• (CCJ)/-.03
• (COR)/3.79
• (EMR)/1.62
• (HUM)/2.93
• (IRM)/1.30
• (JCI)/.82
• (JLL)/4.24
• (LMND)/-.70
• (MCD)/3.33
• (OC)/3.71
• (SMG)/-1.98
• (SRAD)/.08
• (U)/.18
• (VSH)/.04
• (WWW)/.33
• (ZBH)/1.87 

After the Close: 

• (ALB)/-.86
• (ALL)/7.55
• (AMSC)/.15
• (APP)/2.38
• (ARM)/.33
• (CF)/2.16 
• (COHR)/1.04
• (CRH)/2.20
• (CW)/3.30
• (DASH)/.68
• (DUOL)/.76
• (BROS)/.17
• (ELF)/.57
• (ENS)/2.35
• (FIG)/.05
• (FTNT)/.63
• (FWRD)/-.17
• (HUBS)/2.59
• (IONQ)/-.44
• (JOBY)/-.19
• (LYFT)/.24
• (MCK)/9.03
• (MET)/2.32
• (QCOM)/2.87
• (HOOD)/.54
• (RGLD)/2.15
• (SEZL)/.65
• (RGR)/.35
• (TLN)/2.78
• (TKO)/.59 

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Oct. is estimated to rise to 40K versus -32K in Sept. 

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 50.7 versus 50.0 in Sept.  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -247,670 barrels versus a -6,858,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,363,170 barrels versus a -5,941,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,168,500 barrels versus a -3,362,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.82% versus a -2.0% decline prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KLAC) annual meeting, (APLD) annual meeting, (ETD) annual meeting, (RNG) investor meeting, (BAC) investor day, (CAH) annual meeting, (LYV) investor meeting and the Stifel Midwest Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.0 -.6
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 33.5% of Issues Advancing, 64.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +14.9% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$141.5M
  
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 58.1% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.1 -1.7

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Nov. 30th?  86.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 39.0% -12.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 18.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 67.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 83.8 -3.4%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 351.5 +9.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.3 -.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 173.7 -1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (to EXTREME FEAR from NEUTRAL) -23.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.1 +20.9%
  
• Vix 18.6 +8.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -14.4%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The end of an era of essentially free money in Japan, a flurry of dealmaking and the AI boom have unleashed record overseas borrowing by the nation’s firms whose renewed swagger is shaking up global markets.
• As voters across the US prepare to cast ballots Tuesday, election officials are operating with reduced support from a federal government agency that previously helped states and localities counter threats and cyberattacks.
• Three employees at cybersecurity companies spent years moonlighting as criminal hackers, launching their own ransomware attacks in a plot to extort millions of dollars from victims around the country, US prosecutors allege.
• Flight delays are rising as the US government shutdown stretches on. Here's what to know.
• The current environment for large mergers and acquisitions is quite “constructive” for 2026 and 2027, particularly in the US, according to the CEO of Goldman.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Boasts He "Pushed" Netanyahu Into Gaza Ceasefire In Candid Reveal. 
• A Cautionary Solar Tale: Billions Wasted Thanks To A Rush To Market.
• "We're Seeing Demand Explode": UAE, US Sign AI And Energy Pact As Microsoft To Invest $7.9B On Infrastructure
  .
• *STARBUCKS SELLS 60% STAKE IN CHINA UNIT TO BOYU AT $4B VALUE.
• “Most Expensive Stock I've Ever Seen": Palantir Smashes Estimates But Stock Fades After Hours Surge As Valuation Questions Swirl.
• Short-Squeezers Shredded As Dash-For-Trash Disappoints; Breadth Abysmal, Bitcoin Bad, Bullion Better.

• @CNBC

• Stock futures are little changed after AI stocks start November off strong: Live updates.
• Goldman just updated its global list of top stocks — and gives 5 over 70% upside. 
• Ether falls 7% following a multimillion dollar hack of a decentralized finance protocol.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palantir, Hims & Hers Health, Clorox and more. 
• Asia markets mostly poised to fall despite Wall Street tech rally.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• CNBC Daily Open: Outside AI, the market isn't looking that hot. 

• @WSJ  

• Exclusive: Anthropic signed up professional-services firm Cognizant in one of its biggest deals yet as the artificial intelligence startup looks to make its flagship Claude models the preferred AI for businesses.
• From @WSJopinion: For those of us who ride the commuter rails and subways daily, Saturday night’s mass stabbing on a London-bound train is a nightmare brought to life, writes @MattHennessey.
• Two startups aiming to produce an American supply of rare-earth magnets have sealed a $1.4 billion deal with the Trump administration.
• Administration’s order to keep coal plant open ignites debate in Michigan.

• @TheTranscript

• Palantir double beat + raises FY guidance. CEO: "We are yet again announcing the highest sequential quarterly revenue growth guide in our company’s history, representing 61% Y/Y growth." $PLTR: +0.1% AH. (pic)
• $PLTR CEO: "We also generated a staggering $476 million in profit this past quarter, again a record in our company’s history—and to be clear, nearly half a billion dollars in profit in only three months. It is worth remembering that the business is now producing more profit in a single quarter than it did in revenue not long ago." (graph) 

• @GenFlynn

• Now you all know why @elonmusk & @DOGE were shut down. The UNIPARTY was caught with their pants down and no longer wanted the exposure. It was butt ugly! (video)

• @winwithwinsome

• Our campaign is backed by 80+ sheriffs — Republicans, Democrats, Independents. They know who actually protects them. Abigail took AOC PAC money to defund police and voted to strip qualified immunity. If she won’t protect them, she won’t protect YOU.
• I asked Abigail what if one of her girls came home crying because she was forced to undress next to a man. Her silence was deafening. (video)
• Hanover, it was great meeting all of you! Thank you for your love and support! Get out to vote tomorrow! This election is about common sense over nonsense. We will win if we show up and vote! We will win this for all of Virginia! (pic)

• @KobeissiLetter

• The downfall of tech jobs in California will be studied for years to come. The % of US tech jobs located in California is now below 2008 levels. (graph)

• @EricLDaugh

• WOW! In an INCREDIBLE moment, Jack Ciattarelli's son Jake came home from KUWAIT to join his father on the New Jersey campaign trail for governor in a surprise visit. CROWD: "USA! USA! USA!" We're rooting for you, Jack! (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Virginia Governor race is this week. Hundreds of thousands of federal government workers live in VA and 85%+ are Democrat. Gov’t shutdown means all of them have time to go vote on Tuesday. Democrats are starving Americans to seize power in Virginia. (video) 
• Guy who rigged the CIA to spy on a sitting President now endorsing CIA officer for Governor. I’ve never seen Obama this involved with politics. It’s not a coincidence that as his operatives start getting indicted, he’s getting more openly desperate. (pic)

• @ElijahSchaffer

• Massive psyop underway to dehumanize @TuckerCarlson. Notice whose coordinating this and participating. He’s too big to fail, and I’m afraid like Charlie, they’ll get desperate as their plans to cancel him fail. And his popularity only rises. Pray for his safety.

• @HealthRanger

• Tyler Robinson is clearly not the shooter. That much is now obvious. (video)

• @matt_vanswol

• I’m naturally not a conspiracy theorist. I’ve been in science fields / data science for over a decade. …but after seeing all the evidence. I’m becoming more and more convinced that Democrats are cheating to win elections at every available opportunity. It’s everywhere. (pic)

• @ClayTravis

• Houston has a three hour TSA line right now. Democrats have to end these shutdowns. Ridiculous. (video)

• @Geiger_Capital

• WOW. Final NYC poll from Atlas Intel… Zohran Mamdani is now leading Andrew Cuomo by just 4.5%, election day tomorrow. Most accurate pollster in 2020 and 2024.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.5 -1.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.10% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.2%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.3%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.5%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on AI-Infrastructure Buildout, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% +7.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(324 of 500 reporting) +11.1% +.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 299.74 +1.81:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.9 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% +6.3 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.03 +7.91: Growth Rate +21.3% +1.9 percentage points, P/E 34.5 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 -.1 point
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.0% -.5 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 56.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.6%(unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -210 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Nuclear -3.4% 2) Biotech -1.4% 3) Education -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CRBG, LOPE, UTZ, BCC, MSI, ORLY, KRUS, TBBK, FND, ATGE, TGTX, RYI, ATGE, VOD, BFAM, FMC, ACHR, BHF, RBLX, SM, LENZ, NSSC, KTB, SSTK, PRAX, MNMD, CDE, VERX, UUUU, KMB, BHVN, ADEA, CLPT, STOK, ELVN, EBS, QURE and DD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1)  2) LUMN 3) CMG 4) AR 5) RYAM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BYND 2) QURE 3) ALVO 4) USAR 5) JSPR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) GNR 3) KRE 4) XLP 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.3% 2) Oil Service +2.3% 3) Computer Hardware +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TERN, CIFR, MD, AMKR, IDXX, KVUE, FRPT, TEO, BTU, CSIQ, IDCC, IREN, LUMN, BE, TCMD, INCY, AMR, IMNM, BBAR, INDV, SUPV, AR, CVNA, OSPN, ATAT, WDC, KEP, CEPU, TPB, GTM, PAHC, CORZ, DBRG, GPOR, LRN, MYE, ITRI, ACLS, FLS, AMZN, CSTL, EDN, MGA, NTLA, ARES, STRL, RYAAY, OMF, SFM, SEI, CSTM, NPKI, AUGO, TTMI, PCRX, PUMP, KRNT, MDB, BLBD, NGVC, HUT, GRPN, LMND, SNDK, UCTT, CHYM, OMDA, SOFI, EGAN, CMPO, UBER, HCC and TBPH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KMB 2) XLB 3) GTM 4) GRPN 5) CLPT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TERN 2) IDXX 3) FRPT 4) CIFR 5) MD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) XLY 3) FDN 4) IBB 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume