Monday, November 03, 2025

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on AI-Infrastructure Buildout, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.03%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% +7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +1.7 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(324 of 500 reporting) +11.1% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 299.74 +1.81:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% +6.3 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.03 +7.91: Growth Rate +21.3% +1.9 percentage points, P/E 34.5 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 -.1 point
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.0% -.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 56.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.6%(unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -210 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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