Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.01%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.85% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -2.3 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -2.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.6 +.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.4% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.45 +.14: Growth Rate +15.5% unch., P/E 21.9 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 499.40 +.71: Growth Rate +22.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -13.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 unch.
- US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.1% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.3% (+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 41.5%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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