Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a new operation against narco-terrorists, signaling that the US may be prepared to step up a campaign of deadly airstrikes against vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.
• Brazil hopes to reach a preliminary trade deal with the US as soon as this month, the South American nation’s top diplomat said, as relations between the two countries improve after a months-long feud.
• The US and Argentina reached a deal to deepen “bilateral trade and investment cooperation,” the White House said in a notice briefly posted to its government website. 
• Apple and OpenAI must answer to a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk’s X and xAI accusing the companies of conspiring to thwart competition in emerging markets in artificial intelligence, a federal judge in Texas ruled. 
• Bank of America asked a federal judge to throw out a proposed class-action lawsuit accusing the company of aiding in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking scheme.
• The Trump administration rescinded restrictions on oil drilling in Alaska’s mammoth state petroleum reserve, reversing a move by former President Joe Biden that put an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil off limits.
• Applications for US unemployment benefits edged lower last week, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of unadjusted state-level filings.
• Federal Reserve policymakers are flying blind after the US government shutdown starved them of crucial data, and the uncertainty is testing the nerves of investors.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut.
• Asian stocks were primed to track Wall Street lower Friday, as optimism linked to the US government reopening were tempered by uncertainty over interest rates and equity valuations.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• State Dept Labels Four Antifa-Linked Cells As Foreign Terrorist Organizations As Fight Against Radical Left Goes Global.
• Stall In China's M1 Is Nothing To Get Worried About... Yet.
• "Funding demand will increase into year end due to various equity liquidity events and as dealers look to optimize resources into year-end, and expect SRF usage to perk back up vs. recent usage." - Goldman.
• Underwater Mortgages Rise To 3-Year High Amid Cooling US Housing Market.
• The FOMC decision is Dec 10. The next CPI print is Dec 10.
• Momentum Meltdown And Massive Rotations.
• BREAKING: The Democrats deleted their post claiming that President Trump spent Thanksgiving with Epstein in 2017. Probably because it’s an easily disprovable lie and the attempts to connect President Trump to Epstein’s crimes are a giant hoax.  
• Pentagon Briefs Trump On 'Military Options' Against Venezuela For 'Coming Days'.
• *US PREPARES SOME TARIFF EXEMPTIONS TO LOWER FOOD PRICES: NYT.
• Risk appetite at 0.
• How China Grabbed Nvidia Racks Through Secret Jakarta Loophole.
• *VERIZON'S TARGET FOR LAYOFFS RISES TO 20,000.
• Swalwell Bares Fangs After Pulte Refers To DOJ For Criminal Mortgage Fraud.
• Momentum had its worst day of the year (down ~6.5%) since DeepSeek.  
• Trump Outlines Plan To Scrap "Stupid Obamacare", Redirect Money To Americans.
• Who Really Owns America? The Banks, The Billionaires, & The Deep State.
• Bloodbath In Bitcoin & Big-Tech After Big Vote; Rate-Cut Odds Tumble.  

• @CNBC

• China's economic slowdown deepens in October as housing slump worsens and investments shrink more than expected.
• CNBC Daily Open: Flying blind in markets and the economy.
• SoftBank shares plunge over 8%, extending selloff into third day.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific shares set to fall, tracking Wall Street declines as tech selloff deepens.
• Goldman Sachs stands by top lawyer Kathy Ruemmler after her emails with Jeffrey Epstein exposed.
• Stock futures little changed after major indexes notch worst day in a month: Live updates.
• AI isn't a bubble but rather an opportunity, JPMorgan's Erdoes says.     

• @WSJ  

• Exclusive: Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery.

• @TheTranscript

• $AMAT gets a triple beat. Demand held steady in Display and Services, while Semi Systems softened; GM held ~48%, but OM stepped down due to lower volume and mix, as well as restructuring.
• Applied Materials CFO: "Based on our conversations with our customers and partners, we are preparing Applied’s operations and service organizations to be ready to support higher demand beginning in the second half of calendar 2026".

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +1.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.9 -.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.12% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.