Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.07%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% -4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.86% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 +2.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.8 -1.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +1.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.57 +.06: Growth Rate +12.6% -3.0 percentage points, P/E 21.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% +7.6 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 500.22 +.19: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.0 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .31 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1
- US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.0% -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 49.7% (-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 41.3%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,070 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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