Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.13%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.81% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -.6 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.8 -9.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -2.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.73 +1.16: Growth Rate +13.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.72 +3.5: Growth Rate +24.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 +.2
- US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +.6 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 -2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.5% (+6.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.8%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +975 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment