Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.03%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.5 +.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.51 +.06: Growth Rate +15.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 500.03 +.63: Growth Rate +23.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .25 -13.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -17.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.1
- US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% +.1 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.7% +.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 49.6% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.2%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +705 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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