Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.14%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.0% -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.77% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.2 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.98 +.25:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 504.54 +.82: Growth Rate +24.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% -.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.4% +1.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 63.9% (-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 42.7%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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