Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.3%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.08% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +11.5% +.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 300.21 +.47: Growth Rate +14.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% +6.3 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 494.24 +9.21: Growth Rate +21.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.9 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +16.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 -.3 point
- US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.1% +2.1 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 55.8% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.0%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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