Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Government Shutdown-Induced Economic Slowdown Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.19 +.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% -7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.85% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.8 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 -4.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.6 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(430 of 500 reporting) +12.0% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 300.46 +.10:  Growth Rate +14.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 494.77 +.03: Growth Rate +21.8% unch., P/E 33.2 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% -1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 40.8%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -268 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long