Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Japan’s ruling party aims to secure roughly $6.5 billion per year to keep supporting the nation’s semiconductor and AI sectors, according to a lawmaker who leads such efforts.
• China’s thermal coal price has climbed to its highest level this year, as a combination of short and long-term factors lift confidence in the outlook for demand. 
• SoftBank explored a potential takeover of US chipmaker Marvell Technology earlier this year, sources say, in what would have been the semiconductor industry’s largest-ever deal.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon — weighing in amid a wave of job cuts at other employers — says headcount at the largest US bank will probably remain steady or rise as it continues to roll out AI, if “we do a good job”. 
• MSCI added 69 companies to its all country world index in its quarterly review, including CoreWeave, Nebius and Insmed.
• Charles Schwab is slated to acquire Forge, a marketplace for buying and selling private company shares, according to a source.  
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• "Cut The Federal Budget In Half... And Get More Done...".
• And less than a month later...
• China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver.
• JUST IN: Car explodes during fire in New York City, injuring multiple firefighters. (video)
• China Orders State-Funded Data Centers Not To Use Foreign AI Chips.
• "We're Coming After You" - How Some On The Left Found Peace Through Hate.
• Median Age For First-Time Home Buyer Hits 40, A Record High.
• The Corrupt Anatomy Of The SNAP Panic.
• Stocks & Gold Jump, Bonds Dumped As Bitcoin Bounces Bigly Off Bear-Market Lows.   

• @CNBC

• Figma delivers strong forecast as AI draws in more customers.
• Robinhood doubles revenue as it beats third-quarter earnings expectations.
• FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snap, Arm Holdings, Figma, Lyft and more.
• Stock futures little changed after AI trade recovers from pullback.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher, tracking Wall Street gains as AI stocks rebound.
• $QCOM delivers beat on earnings, automotive growth business up 17%.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CNBC Daily Open: Even a Supreme Court ruling might not spell the end of tariffs.

• @WSJ  

• From @WSJopinion: Americans are realizing that AI can revolutionize the economy—and, with it, society and politics, writes William Galston.

• @TheTranscript

• Analyst to $IBKR CEO: "Are you actually seeing evidence of [AI driving higher trading volumes] in your business yet?” “We do not have an ability to see whether that's the reason... But in the long run, that thesis should become real.” – Milan Galik, CEO.
• Arm CEO/CFO: ".... strong Q2 results. Revenue grew 34% Y/Y to $1.14B, our third consecutive billion-dollar revenue quarter and above the high end of guidance" $ARM: +3% AH.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Youngkin had an approval rating of 55%… Ready for this, 1 in 4 of voters who approved of Glenn Younkin’s job voted for Abigail Spanberger. — “That’s a really weird anomaly.” No shit.. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• John Solomon is calling out Attorney General Pam Bondi, accusing her of pulling another “Epstein binder” stunt by recycling months-old information and passing it off as new. He admits prosecutors have fallen so far behind on major arrests that time is running out before the midterm elections. Solomon warns that this Department of Justice isn’t “getting there” and says this team may not deliver the big arrests Americans are waiting for. (video)

• @TPostMillenial

• REVEALED: Only 46 percent of Virginia voters thought Jay Jones (D-Attorney General) fantasizing about assassinating GOP colleague, killing Republican children was "disqualifying". (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Chester County, Pennsylvania has been accused of blatant election MALFEASANCE after "accidentally" not including 75,000 VOTERS on their polling books, resulting in voters being TURNED AWAY. Independents - who lean Republican on election day - were told they're NOT on the voter rolls. Then they either had to vote provisional, or the location RAN OUT of provisional ballots, per @ScottPresler. Absolutely unbelievable. The media NEEDS to be covering this. (video)
• BREAKING: Right as polls are about to close, Senate Democrats are making MOVES toward reopening the government, with over 12 in serious talks to strike a deal, per Punchbowl. IT WAS ALL A GAME. They used the shutdown to hopefully juice their leftist base turnout for the elections. You are a DISGRACE, Chuck Schumer! (video)
• BREAKING: Sen. Markwayne Mullin just outrageously revealed Chuck Schumer held a BACK-ROOM MEETING and demanded Democrat senators wait until after tonight's elections to reopen the government. "Because they were afraid their base wouldn't show up today in Virginia, NJ, NYC." TRULY DISGUSTING. "Last week, Dick Durbin WANTED to break with Democrats and reopen it, but Chuck Schumer in a private meeting with other senators said, wait until after the election, I'll release the handcuffs. I'm paraphrasing." (video)

• @ProjectConstitu

• EXCLUSIVE: New evidence reveals Brian Harpole former police officer/ mercenary that was part of Charlie Kirk's security detail and who is under intense scrutiny for potentially being involved in Kirk's death at the Sept. 10, 2025, incident at UVU—was part of then-PM Benjamin Netanyahu's personal security team in 2017. Side-by-side photos leave no room for doubt: It's the same man, in the same elite role. He once shielded Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during high-stakes overseas trips. Now? He's embedded in Charlie Kirk's detail—on the exact day Kirk was assassinated.

• @realmflynnJR

• The Democrats sweeping nearly every election tonight is 100% a sign of voter fatigue in the Republican Party. And can you blame us? 1) Elections are a referendum on the current political climate. 2) I don’t blame @POTUS but he REALLY needs to wake up to those around him who are SLOW PLAYING HIS AGENDA, and giving him terrible advice (especially on endorsements). *Cough* @SusieWiles. 3- Accountability (NOT)? -No big name arrests. -No one held accountable yet. -Foreign influence in our government still prevails. -Gaslit with stats from the FBI AND DOJ thinking that’ll work to somehow regain our trust (bullsh#t). -MAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE AND FOR WHAT?!? What have they done? If the GOP doesn’t get its sh#t together the @realDonaldTrump presidency will be over in Nov 2026.

• @GuntherEagleman

• They have had 10 months to pass secure election laws and impeach rogue Judges… Nothing. Both are tagged! Let them know they are failing the American people. (pic)

• @Geiger_Capital

• My advice for Republicans before 2026… Trump should stop focusing on the Middle East, and focus on the economy and immigration.

• @MikeCrispi

• Ciattarelli received 122,000 more total votes than he got in 2021. He got more votes than Murphy received when he won re-election. Sherrill got 450k more votes than Murphy. The inner city historic turnout for an uninspiring candidate like Mikie is quite an anomaly. How?

• @GlennBeck

• According to Linda Sarsour, the MAJORITY of Zohran Mamdani’s campaign money came from CAIR, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. AKA the unindicted co-conspirator named in the FBI’s 2007 terrorism finance case. 'Turn the volume up' on THIS. (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• How did 175,000 votes for Spanberger suddenly show up this morning? (graph)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! James O’Keefe has a Democrat insider revealing on hidden camera Gavin Newsom is funneling the money donated to his Prop 50 Redistricting Election into a Presidential Campaign fund for himself. This is money laundering. (video)
• There needs to be a major investigation into California’s Prop 50 redistricting election. Somehow I ended up in the Spanish side of TikTok while searching Prop 50 and everyone’s speaking full Spanish saying go vote yes on Prop 50. This is why Gavin Newsom made checking ID illegal. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 -2.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.25 -2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.22 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.15% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.