Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 -.16%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% +7.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.88% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.1 +2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +10.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(389 of 500 reporting) +11.6% +.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 300.36 +.15: Growth Rate +14.7% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 494.74 +.50: Growth Rate +21.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 -12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 -.1 point
- US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.8% -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 -6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.7% (-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 45.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,210 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +48 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +144 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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