Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APD)/3.38
• (MT)/.61
• (AZN)/1.15
• (BDX)/3.92
• (BLMN)/-.12
• (CARS)/.49
• (COP)/1.41
• (CMI)/4.81
• (DDOG)/.45
• (DD)/.47
• (SATS)/-1.21
• (H)/.49
• (NRG)/1.99
• (PZZA)/.41
• (PH)/6.62
• (PLNT)/.74
• (RL)/3.45
• (ROK)/2.94
• (SN)/1.32
• (STRA)/1.30
• (TPR)/1.26
• (TRIP)/.58
• (VST)/2.08
• (YETI)/.58 
• (DDS)/.5.80
• (EOG)/2.46
• (SNDK)/.87 

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/.11
• (ABNB)/2.31
• (XYZ)/.64
• (ED)/1.74
• (DOCS)/.38
• (DKNG)/-.43
• (DBX)/.65
• (EXPE)/6.97
• (HRB)/-1.35
• (IREN)/.15
• (KRMN)/.11
• (MCHP)/.34
• (MNST)/.48
• (MP)/-.17
• (NWSA)/.19
• (SMR)/-.14
• (PGNY)/.13
• (RBA)/.81
• (TTWO)/.94
• (TTD)/.20
• (WYNN)/1.15
• (YELP)/.53 

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Oct. 

8:30 am EST

• 3Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise +3.3% versus a +3.3% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.0% gain in 2Q.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Paulson speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (COTY) annual meeting and the (TSLA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 -1.4
• 0 Sectors Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 71.7% of Issues Advancing, 26.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -7.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$111.2M
  
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 69 New Lows
• 59.8% (+3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.1 +4.0

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Nov. 30th?  91.0% +7.0 percentage points
• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% -8.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 67.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.9 +1.4%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 344.5 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.5 +.8%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 172.9 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.3 -32.6%
  
• Vix 17.5 -8.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -4.9%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.5% to -1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +3.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +2.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.43%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 +.21%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.09 -.33%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.0 -2.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.05% -3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +1.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.3%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.7%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses in the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Government Shutdown-Induced Economic Slowdown Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.08% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +11.5% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 300.21 +.47:  Growth Rate +14.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% +6.3 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 494.24 +9.21: Growth Rate +21.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.9 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +16.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 -.3 point
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.1% +2.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 55.8% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.0%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -4.3% 2) Alt Energy -4.3% 3) Airlines -4.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SBUX, OWL, HLIT, INR, NNN, LECO, O, QGEN, AMKR, EGAN, TYRA, DSGX, FMC, PUMP, SNDK, AAUC, TRS, TNET, UBER, SHOP, INGR, HOG, GOOD, MPC, PCT, BWXT, PLTR, FMS, CDE, HUT, COGT, CUK, LSCC, LUMN, CCL, PRIM, CDW, QURE, ZTS, ADEA, AESI, PRAA, NSP, NCLH, PZZA, DGNX, FORD, ICHR and SRPT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMB 2) UPXI 3) TSCO 4) SEDG 5) LQDA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRPT 2) VSTM 3) FLYE 4) JSPR 5) CCL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) GNR 3) XLU 4) SIL 5) MAGS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Insurance +1.5% 2) Medical Equipment +.5% 3) Restaurants +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TCMD, KFRC, XMTR, PAY, TERN, MTSR, CSTL, SANM, VITL, SGHC, INSP, AHCO, JBTM, WING, MDGL, UPWK, EVER, GLDD, SNDX, EXPD, FN, AUPH, HISC, LQDA, HLNE, DD, SPHR, UNM, CRK, YUM, APO, WAT, WSR, MD, SEE, Q, CTRA, FND, AVBP, EMN, LTH, MAR, PAX, KRYS, PHG and EXAS 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KMB 2) QURE 3) DGXX 4) ETN 5) LQDA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TCMD 2) FN 3) SANM 4) HTZ 5) IHRT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IYM 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) IDU 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume