Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CRCL)/.22
• (MH)/.39
• (ONON)/.26
• (TDG)/10.04
• (CPRT)/.40
• (HI)/.61 

After the Close: 

• (CSCO)/.98
• (FLUT)/.55
• (PAAS)/.49 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +587,400 barrels versus a +5,202,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -1,763,400 barrels versus a -4,729,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,296,000 barrels versus a -643,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.08% versus a -.6% decline prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• (NFLX) 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Paulson speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Deutsche Bank Gaming/Lodging/Leisure/Restaurants Conference, Baird Industrials Conference, Guggenhaim Second Healthcare Innovation Conference, JPMorgan Luxury Goods Conference, (CVX) investor day, (ADP) annual meeting and the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 -2.9
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 63.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .85 -44.1% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$111.0M
  
• 137 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
• 61.5% (+2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.4 +3.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31st? 26% -26.0 percentage points 
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 39.0% +10.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 85.7 -.1%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 344.5 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.6 +1.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 167.5 -1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -16.1%
  
• Vix 17.6 -.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -10.8%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.84 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.7 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.12% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.48%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Trump said he would look to diversify critical minerals purchases during a meeting with five central Asian countries, as the US seeks to address China’s dominance in rare earths critical to advanced tech manufacturing. 
• Japan and the US will join forces to extract rare earths in the waters around a small island in the Pacific, after the two allies struck an agreement to work together to cut their reliance on China for the critical mineral.
• Expedia raised its full-year gross bookings and revenue outlook, signaling that strong travel trends are continuing into the holiday quarter.
• Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of unadjusted state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• *US TO BLOCK NVIDIA’S SCALED-BACK AI CHIPS TO CHINA: INFORMATION.
• Long-Term Melatonin Use Linked To Nearly Double Heart Failure Risk, Study Finds.
• 3 Questions For Democrats After 2025 Elections.
• “Panic Unfolds": Nonprofit Sector Battered By 419% Surge In Job Losses And Grantmaking Freeze.
• The Technology That Police Call A Game-Changer, And Raises Privacy Concerns.
• *MUSK SAYS TESLA TO REVEAL ROADSTER 2 IN EARLY APRIL 2026.
• JPMorgan Discloses Government Probe Into Debanking Practices.
• Amazon's Power Shortage Makes The Case For Why AI Needs Nuclear.
• Senators Say Bondi And Patel Are Being 'Sabotaged' On Epstein Files; Massie Isn't Buying It.
• These Are The 40 Airports That Will Reduce Flights Due To Shutdown.
• When A Train Wreck Is No Accident.
• Disagreements Emerge Over US-China Rare Earth Deal, As US Adds Uranium, Silver To Critical Minerals List.
• Stocks Slammed On Lousy Layoffs Data, Losing The AI Race, & Lamenting The Govt Shutdown.  

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Tech had a rough day in the markets — its employees had a worse October.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open lower, tracking Wall Street losses as AI stocks extend slump.
• The stocks set to win from soaring AI spend, according to analysts.
• Stock futures edge higher after key AI stocks dive on valuation fears: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Airbnb, Take-Two Interactive, Peloton, Affirm and more.
• Tesla says shareholders approve Musk's $1 trillion pay plan with over 75% voting in favor.     

• @WSJ  

• In Charts: Big tech is spending big on AI. In advertising, the fast-evolving technology is already juicing revenue.
• The Israeli military is beginning to draw down the number of its reservists serving in Gaza and other arenas, a sign it is reducing the intensity of fighting as a cease-fire holds.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune expects Senate Republicans to vote on a new proposal Friday that aims to end the government shutdown.

• @TheTranscript

• Airbnb CEO: "Revenue increased 10% year over year, landing at the high end of our guidance...gross booking value increased 14% YoY, while nights and seats booked rose by 9%... driven by the strength in the U.S. market and ADR". $ABNB: +5% AH.
• Take-Two's best Q2 bookings in company history were overshadowed by Grand Theft Auto VI delay from May 2026 to November 2026: CEO: "The date moved from calendar 2025 to Fall of calendar 2026 in order to deliver the best experience possible." $TTWO: -7% AH. 
• $TSLA CEO @elonmusk: Tesla may build its own AI chip fab as supplier capacity won't meet future demand. "Even when we extrapolate the best-case scenario for chip production from our suppliers, it's still not enough. So I think we may have to do a Tesla Terra fab. So, it's like Giga but way bigger. I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that we're looking for. So I think we're probably going to have to build a gigantic chip fab". 

• @newstart_2024 

• Dr. Judy Morgan: “USDA Quietly Approves Self-Amplifying mRNA for Pets”. The story that’s shaking the veterinary world—Merck has quietly rolled out a new line of self‑amplifying mRNA (saRNA) vaccines under the Novavax NXT brand, beginning with a rabies shot for dogs and cats. The USDA approved it without long‑term independent safety trials. Merck’s in‑house InterVet lab reportedly studied just 38 pets for 14 days. Thirty‑five were euthanized by the end. Veterinarians across the country are now being urged to use these experimental shots, even as reports circulate of adverse effects—aggression, seizures, paralysis, and death. No peer review, no transparency, no full‑public data. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical and food giants are expanding mRNA’s reach—experimenting with livestock, cosmetics, even dental products. Some reports suggest plans to spray fields with mRNA‑based formulations. Dr. Morgan warns: “Ask questions before you inject your pets—or yourself. Demand accountability. Know exactly what’s in every vial.” (video)

• @TheIntelSCIF

• Candace Owens confirms that Charlie was not administered ANY type of first aid by his security team when it's supposed to be protocol. Candace also asks what Charlie's security team was even doing the whole time while they had Charlie on the ground, and why was he on some type of suitcase with his head hanging down, and not flat on the ground? (video)

• @ImMeme0

• BOMBSHELL: Jeffrey Epstein’s former cellmate, Nicholas Tartaglione, claims that New York federal prosecutors offered Epstein a deal to walk free if he agreed to implicate Donald Trump as long Trump’s team “could not disprove it. “ “Epstein told me that [lead prosecutor] Maurene Comey said that he didn’t have to prove anything, as long as President Trump’s people could not disprove it. According to Maurene Comey, the FBI were ‘her people, not his [President Trump’s],’ ” the filing states.

• @TheChiefNerd

• New Jersey saw 500,000+ more votes than any other year in history, and nearly all of them went to Democrats? (pic)

• @realLizUSA

• Democrats have never been more unpopular. Yet, magically, they are still able to flip districts Trump won just 1 year ago and run CIA agents who win by 15 points. It’s a mystery! (pic)

• @GuntherEagleman

• Nuke the filibuster, then pass these simple election laws, - Proof of Citizenship. - Voter ID. - Same Day Voting. - Paper Ballots. Democrat cheating stops… Game over!

• @w_terrence

• Zohran was funded by the Soros family. I blame the Republicans because they refuse to hold George Soros and son accountable for all their crimes. When will they fight for us and hold the real criminals accountable. (pic)

• @FreeStateWill

• If Pam Bondi holds everyone responsible for the fedsurrection accountable, she will be a hero. But if she lets the statute of limitations expire in 62 days without holding anyone accountable, she will be one of the darkest villains in American history.

• @BillMelugin_

• As a result of Prop 50 passing in California last night, blood red Huntington Beach, which has all Republicans on its city council & is a MAGA stronghold, will be represented by progressive Democrat Congressman Robert Garcia as part of a newly gerrymandered District 42.

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Just look at the vote shift in the Miyares/Jones race. Exactly the same as the 2020 election. (graph)

• @BreannaMorello

• JUST IN. Three Chinese research scholars at the University of Michigan were charged today with conspiracy to smuggle biological materials into the U.S. and lying to customs agents. Xu Bai (28), Fengfan Zhang (27), and Zhiyong Zhang (30) were J-1 visa holders working in the Shawn Xu lab. AG Pamela Bondi called the alleged smuggling a threat to national and agricultural security.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 +1.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.4 -.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.09% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Government Shutdown-Induced Economic Slowdown Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.19 +.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% -7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.85% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.8 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 -4.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.6 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(430 of 500 reporting) +12.0% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 300.46 +.10:  Growth Rate +14.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 494.77 +.03: Growth Rate +21.8% unch., P/E 33.2 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% -1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 40.8%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -268 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -3.8% 2) Alt Energy -3.1% 3) AI/Innovation -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MET, CHAC, MOS, PRGO, OTF, FI, IDXX, NVO, PSO, POOL, ATEX, CHYM, JHX, MIDD, FORD, ADNT, OC, BYRN, CPRT, WING, LMND, ALNT, OBDC, VTRS, ZLAB, ADMA, AXON, KNTK, SDGR, LOPE, LPG, FTNT, PENN, MELI, DEO, VOYG, DNOW, CIM, COLD, AEVA, BKSY, WWW, WD, PTC, TPR, AMPX, ADPT, SLNO, KRUS, AMPX, SEZL, ADPT, WRBY, GEO, LEU, DYN, CXW, SNN, XRAY, PAYC, MGNI, TFX, ERII, CAI, KMPR, NOVT, TAC, HUBS, DASH, RGR, GOOS, RXO, QDEL, PRMB, PRKS, KMX, RELY, REZI, VAC, DUOL, AOSL, CELH, CCOI, ELF, PRCH and AMSC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ELF 2) NTR 3) LC 4) DASH 5) SLDP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CCOI 2) GOOS 3) KMX 4) CELH 5) ASPN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) ITB 3) XLP 4) EUFN 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume