Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Technical Selling, Tech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.01%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.85% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -2.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.6 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +11.4% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.45 +.14:  Growth Rate +15.5% unch., P/E 21.9 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 499.40 +.71: Growth Rate +22.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 unch.
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.1% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +.4 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.3% (+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 41.5%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.8% 2) Electric Vehicles -2.7% 3) Semis -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GOF, OXLC, ACM, GRAL, HP, WSC, HD, TU, ZYME, SUPX, BKV, CSIQ, SNDK, PACS, PDD, KLAR, CEVA, NICE and ENR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) XLV 3) FFAI 4) CAVA 5) LQDA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HD 2) FTNT 3) PDD 4) HON 5) SNPS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IGM 3) XLY 4) XLE 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.9% 2) Alt Energy +1.5% 3) Gambling +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OLMA, ARVN, DGNX, WULF, AS, EYPT, GRRR, FOXF, JHX, QUBT, NBIS, CCOI, RIGL, MSTR, AVTX, UPWK, SRRK, HTFL, LQDA, BMNR, EOSE, JAZZ, MDT, MH, ARQT, GLBE, TERN, FCX, BJCO, WRBY, MRK, SMR, GLAD, PCAR, XP, KC, NTRA, CLF, TK, TMDX, WBD, CWAN, MBUU, VOYG, AHR, B, AIN, PARR, OCFC, TIGO, CX and PWR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) FE 3) NWL 4) NRG 5) AKBA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AS 2) OLMA 3) GRRR 4) VNDA 5) ARVN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FTXL 2) IBB 3) XLK 4) XBI 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DY)/3.21
• (LOW)/2.97
• (TGT)/1.71
• (TJX)/1.23
• (WSM)/1.87 

After the Close: 

• (CPA)/4.03
• (JACK)/.45
• (KLIC)/.22
• (NNE)/-.31
• (NVDA)/1.26
• (PANW)/.89 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$60.7B versus -$78.3B in July.
• Exports and Imports MoM for Aug. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,101,800 barrels versus a +6,413,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +310,800 barrels versus a -945,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,577,600 barrels versus a -637,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.84% versus a +3.4% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Oct. 29th FOMC Meeting Minutes. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Truist Gaming/Lodging/Leisure/Restaurant Summit, Barclays Auto//Mobility Tech Conference, Needham Tech Week Conference, (NWSA) annual meeting, (CLX) annual meeting, (RMD) annual meeting, (XYZ) investor day, (LITE) annual meeting, (ROK) investor day and the BofA Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -4.9
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 58.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .57 -45.7% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$101.2M
  
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 168 New Lows
• 55.7% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.6 -5.4

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 24.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 32% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 39.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 86.1 -2.2%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 439.5 +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.0 -.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.7 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 13.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -7.0
• 1-Day Vix 18.5 -4.5%
  
• Vix 23.3 +3.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -8.3%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The UN Security Council approved a resolution backing Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, in a move the US said would help bolster the fragile truce between Israel and Hamas. 
• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces mounting pressure to soften her stance on Bank of Japan policy and unveil an economic package with a credible funding plan ahead of her meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
• President Donald Trump’s meeting with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman tomorrow may open the door to a host of deals between the US and the kingdom
  . 
• Hong Kong bankers and regulators are signaling growing concern over the city’s deepest real estate downturn since the Asian financial crisis. 
• Jeff Bezos honed his leadership philosophy running one of the world’s largest companies. Now his management style will be tested at an artificial-intelligence startup with fewer than 100 employees. 
• Notices of impending mass layoffs by US companies surged in October to among the highest levels on record, according to a tally by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researchers.
• Arm plans to start incorporating Nvidia's NVLink technology into chip designs for AI data centers. 
• Bitcoin is in free fall — and traders are positioning for more pain. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Inside The Growing Trend Of Digital Detoxing.
• Larry Summers Goes Into Hiding; Messages Sought Epstein's Advice On Cheating With Daughter Of CCP Official.
• Ultraprocessed Foods Linked To Increased Risk Of Precancerous Colorectal Tumors: Study.
• Trump Suggests Airstrikes On Cartels In Mexico, Colombia: 'Okay With Me'.
• Update: it appears @LHSummers did something to someone with Epstein's help after all.
• Larry Summers said he will step back from public commitments after documents showed he asked Jeffrey Epstein for advice on pursuing an affair with a female mentee. "I am deeply ashamed of my actions and recognise the pain they have caused" - FT.
• FT Confirms Our Report From 2024 That China Is Buying 10x More Gold Than Officially Disclosed.
• *KATAYAMA: SEEING RAPID, ONE-SIDED MOVES IN FX MARKET. *KATAYAMA: DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT FX MOVES. *KATAYAMA: WATCHING FX MOVES WITH HIGH SENSE OF URGENCY. Next up: BOJ intervention, USDJPY drops to 153 for a few days, then skyrockets to 170.
• Appeals Court Halts DOT Restrictions On Commercial Driver's Licenses For Illegals.
• *TRUMP: WANT 1% INFLATION.
• Threats Of Sanctions, Economic Warfare, As Japan-China Relations Sink To Decades Low.
• FED'S WALLER SAYS WOULD TAKE BIG REBOUND IN JOBS TO HOLD RATES.
• Stocks Crack Key Support, Crypto Crushed, Credit Bruised On Bezos' Big Bond Deal.     

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: AI still under pressure — but some analysts see a year-end rally.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to slip as Wall Street sinks on tech losses and AI jitters.
• Stock futures little changed after tech slump weighs on markets: Live updates.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

• @WSJ  

• Private Medicaid insurers list big networks of doctors to help get billions of taxpayer dollars. Many of those doctors don't actually see Medicaid patients.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Candace Owens reveals that the Egyptian planes she believed were tailing Charlie Kirk were actually tracking Erika Kirk instead. Over the past year, the planes followed Erika internationally, with more than 60 instances where their locations overlapped. In total, the Egyptian aircraft coincided with Erika’s flights around 70 times in recent years. (video)
• Country music sensation Alexis Wilkins has reportedly been assigned her own FBI SWAT team, a protection detail funded by U.S. taxpayers and arranged by her boyfriend, FBI Director Kash Patel. The agents protecting Wilkins are drawn from the Bureau’s Nashville SWAT unit, trained to handle major incidents like mass shootings and terrorist attacks. Wilkins is neither Patel’s spouse nor living with him; she does not even reside in the same city. (video)

• @RepLuna

• Bill and Hillary Clinton are refusing to appear before House Oversight for their depositions regarding Jeffrey Epstein. Notice how House Democrats suddenly have nothing to say about it.

• @C_3C_3

• The Secret Service knew of a credible threat 10 days before Butler. But “did not have the resources” to protect POTUS Trump in Butler, PA. Sounds crazy but… The same guy that allowed the invasion of illegals on our border was in charge of the Secret Service. 

• @CharlieK_news

• BOMBSHELL JUST DROPPED: The House Judiciary Committee says Liz Cheney and Bennie Thompson weren’t just running the J6 show… they were secretly feeding Jack Smith evidence behind the scenes. We’re talking transcripts. Documents. Even Mark Meadows’ texts. All passed over in a last-minute December 2022 rush before Republicans took control — a direct violation of House rules. This wasn’t an “investigation.” It was collusion. A coordinated hit job on Trump from day one. And now it’s proven. Accountability time. (pic)

• @RealHickory

• In 51 days, the statute of limitations expires on the Nancy Pelosi J6 Insurrection hoax from 2021, no Special Counsel Prosecutor has been appointed, and House Republicans have a 'Committee' that's doing nothing.

• @JimFergusonUK

• EDWARD SNOWDEN’S CHILLING WARNING IS NOW UNFOLDING IN REAL TIME. What China built… is exactly what Western governments are quietly preparing for. Snowden is crystal clear: Every photo, every purchase, every message, every movement — all of it is being fed into algorithms that decide your future. In China, AI “city brains” now track: Where you live. Who you visit. How you dispose of your rubbish. Every step you take in public. Whether you “follow rules” or not. (video)

• @KariLake

• Arizona is captured. (video)

• @IanJaeger29

• Here’s Lindsey Graham saying “he’s done” with MAGA and President Trump after January 6th. President Trump needs to immediately rescind his endorsement of this guy. (video)

• @DiligentDenizen

• Here's a compilation of Charlie Kirk's staffs' anomalous and suspicious behavior in the minutes after Kirk was assassinated: (video)

• @drsimonehold

• WOW: Calley Means says HHS bureaucrats are circulating a “CIA subversion manual” and openly bragging about sabotaging Trump’s agenda. This is a stunning act of institutional rebellion — proof our public health system is captured and must be exposed. (video)

• @RightScopee

• BREAKING: They have had 10 months to pass secure election laws and impeach rogue Judges… Nothing. Let them know they are failing the American people. What's your response?

• @WallStreetApes

• Head of the EPA Lee Zeldin confirms American skies are being sprayed with toxic chemicals and it’s not only a health concern, it’s destroying the environment . He says people are paying billions of dollars to flood our skies with chemicals. (video)

• @ChildrensHD 

• Dane Wigington broke down to Tucker Carlson where the chemtrail planes are taking off from — and how the toxic particles are being dispersed across our skies. Tucker Carlson: “These aircraft seem to be everywhere in the United States. Where are they taking off from? Where do these chemicals come from? The aluminum particulate, the magnesium — what’s the chain that gets us to the stripes in the sky that we see?” Dane Wigington: “Aircraft are taking off from countless locations. We’re aware of a number of military bases where we know they’re deploying from. We also have commercial aircraft with commercial markings that we know are being used in these operations.” “We have film footage of these aircraft retrofit nozzles mounted on the wing pylons, and up-close photographs aimed into the exhaust jet stream to make this look like quote ‘condensation.’” “You might remember about in the year 2000, the weight of the aircraft became a very big deal. How much luggage you carried on, how much weight you carried on, that appears to be when this was implemented.” (video)

• @MDBreathe

• Dr Steven Hatfill is the ONLY person in @HHSGov who dared to publicly state the Covid shots should be pulled off the market. And he was fired. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 +1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 87.9 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.12% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.94%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.