Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Crypto Plunge, Fed "Behind the Curve" Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.07%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.86% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.8 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +1.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.57 +.06:  Growth Rate +12.6% -3.0 percentage points, P/E 21.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% +7.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 500.22 +.19: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.0 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .31 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.0% -.7 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 49.7% (-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 41.3%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,070 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -7.2% 2) Gold & Silver -4.4% 3) Alt Energy -3.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENR, NVT, AAUC, DT, IRM, RBLX, CHAC, GRAL, ETN, GLXY, CRCL, AMTM, VRRM, GEV, BWA, MSTR, ETOR, ROAD, ACM, DASH, COIN, TEL, NBIS, UBER, HSAI, SE, PANW, PODD, MELI, SCVL, DDOG, MU, CPA, LITE, PRAX, J, ATKR, CSIQ, UTI, SNDK and BBWI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LEN 2) ROST 3) RMD 4) AREC 5) WEN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FINV 2) AGAE 3) FLY 4) SCVL 5) FCX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IYW 2) XLY 3) IGM 4) XLC 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +1.2% 2) Insurance +.4% 3) Utilities +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PACS, CRNC, MAGN, TYRA, EXAS, OLMA, ADUR, KLIC, AGIO, ODD, BKSY, ADPT, NRIX, WMT, BCAX, MMS, ABVX, JOYY, REGN, POWL, ZYME, MENS, CWAN, TNDM, SNDX, CSTL, HTFL, NJR, WSC, SOLV, AXTA, VREX, RCUS and VRDN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AGIO 2) LEN 3) CRNC 4) ROST 5) ARWR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MAGN 2) EXAS 3) ODD 4) WMT 5) JOYY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) BAI 3) XLI 4) FDN 5) WTAI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BJ)/1.09
• (BKE)/.95
• (MOG/A)/2.22
• (FRO)/.27 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept. 

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.5 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 54.6 versus 54.8 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Nov. is estimated at 54.6 versus 54.6 in Oct. 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment reading for Nov. 
• Final Wholesale Inventories MoM for Aug. 
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity for Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Bloomberg Nov. US Economic Survey, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, (AVT) annual meeting and the (DCI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 -.6
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 25.6% of Issues Advancing, 72.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.65 +62.8% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$49.0M
  
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 118 New Lows
• 52.7% (-2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.5 -3.7

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 23.0% unch.
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 31.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 39.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 85.8 -.5%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 437.5 +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.7 -.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.9 -1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 8.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 27.0 +5.6%
  
• Vix 25.5 +8.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +8.5%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda signaled that there could be a rate hike as soon as next month by pointing to the need for normalization, after the yen hit its lowest level in roughly 10 months.
• On the escalating AI race between the U.S. and China, "I think the race we should pay more attention to is the race for who can adopt technology and AI the fastest.".
• @RishiSunak talks about the skills humans need to adopt in the age of AI, and how managing a “team of agents” will be a new skill set in the job market.
• The Health and Human Services Department is proposing new initiatives for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including a program to increase hepatitis B screening for pregnant women.
• The US has agreed to approve sales of advanced AI semiconductors to the Emirati AI firm G42, according to two sources, in a major boost for the Gulf nation’s ambitions to be a formidable player in the technology. 
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company has enough new Blackwell chips to meet increasing demand and that business is “very, very strong,” maintaining the bullish tone struck during the company’s third-quarter earnings report.
• Lenovo posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue thanks to its increased market share in global PCs and robust demand for AI servers.
• President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order that would allow the DOJ to sue states over AI regulations it deems unconstitutional, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg Government.
• President Trump plans to roll out a “Genesis Mission” as part of an executive order to boost US artificial intelligence efforts on Monday at the White House, according to a Department of Energy official.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• China Intel Officers Offering Western Gov't Insiders Cash For "Low-Level Information".
• Trump on the Epstein files release... 
• Network Of California Democrat Party Insiders Under Investigation For Fraud.
• ICE Houston Sweep: 3,600 Criminal Illegal Aliens Arrested, Including 51 Child Predators.
• President Sheinbaum Says No Way To US Strikes On Cartels In Mexico.
• An Age Of Forgotten Infrastructure.    
• BREAKING: DOJ charges Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) with stealing $5 million in FEMA funds, laundering the proceeds, and then using the money to support her 2021 Congressional campaign. She faces up to 53 years in prison if convicted. According to the indictment, DOJ says: 
• One-Party-Rule Failure: Democratic Kings Own Maryland's Epic Demise.
• Trump Names Saudi Arabia A 'Major Non-NATO Ally' During MbS Candlelight Dinner Attended By Tech Moguls.
• biggest pileup of shorts on record (via GS). (graph)
• NVDA Data Center up $10BN sequentially, up 66% YoY.
• Fractured Fed Feeds Hawkish Flows; Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Pump'n'Dump.  

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia CEO suggests AI doesn't look like a bubble. 
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Asia markets set to open mixed as Nvidia's earnings beat and bullish forecast lift tech sentiment. 
• Stock futures higher after Nvidia earnings, S&P 500 snaps losing streak: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Oddity Tech, AMD and more. 
• Nvidia posts Q3 beat, CEO Jensen Huang says Blackwell chip sales 'off the charts'. 
• Trump says he'd love to fire Powell, urges Bessent to 'work on' him to lower rates.
• Goldman says these banks and other ordinary companies may benefit most from next phase of AI trade.
• Major League Baseball announces new media rights deals for NBC, ESPN and Netflix.
• Elon Musk's xAI will be first customer for Nvidia-backed data center in Saudi Arabia.
• Palo Alto tops earnings expectations, announces Chronosphere acquisition. 

• @TheTranscript

• Nvidia double beat CEO: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out." $NVDA: +4% AH.
• $NVDA CFO addresses GPU depreciation: "The long useful life of Nvidia’s CUDA GPUs is a significant TCO advantage over accelerators...Thanks to CUDA, the A100 GPUs we shipped 6 years ago are still running at full utilization today, powered by a vastly improved software stack." 
• $NVDA Revenues: (graph)
• $NVDA on track to exit FY26 with gross margins in mid-70s + plan to sustain that level through FY27. "...we believe that as we keep working on cost improvements, cycle time, and mix, we will work to hold our gross margins in the mid-70s. That is our overall plan for gross margin" - CFO.
• $NVDA CFO: $500B Blackwell + Rubin forecast is intact & there's likely upside as new deals emerge. "The number will grow...we shipped $50B this quarter but we would not be finished if we didn’t say that we would probably be taking more orders...there is definitely an opportunity for us to have more on top of the $500B that we announced." 
• About those investments, here is $NVDA CFO: "Our strategic investments in Anthropic, Mistral, OpenAI, Reflection, Thinking Machines, and others represent partnerships that grow the Nvidia CUDA AI ecosystem and enable every model to run optimally on Nvidia’s technology everywhere. We will continue to invest strategically while preserving our disciplined approach to cash flow management."
• $NVDA CFO: "Demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed our expectations. The clouds are sold out, and our GPU-installed base—both new and previous generations, including Blackwell, Hopper, and Ampere—is fully utilized."
• $NVDA CFO: "The Rubin platform is on track to ramp in the second half of 2026. Powered by seven chips, the Vera Rubin platform will once again deliver an X-factor improvement in performance relative to Blackwell."

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 -2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.17 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 88.0 +2.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.13% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -4.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.8%. 
• S&P 500 futures +1.3%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.9%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.