Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @TRobinsonNewEra
  • @KellyLMcCarty
  • @gc22gc
  • @NicHulscher
  • @Shawn_Farash
  • @RealSLokhova
  • @JesseKellyDC
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @jenniferzeng97
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%. 
  • Crude Oil 90.50/bbl. -.8% 
  • Gold 4,870.2 USD/t oz. +.41%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.72 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.84 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.6 +.4%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.25% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.61% -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and transportation shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 -1.8%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.8 +1.8% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .11 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -4.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.5 -4.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 70.4 -3.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.7 +.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -2.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -.6
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 -5.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(25 of 500 reporting) +35.3% -31.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 338.82 +.67:  Growth Rate +22.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.05% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 808.43 +5.67: Growth Rate +103.2% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 19.2 +.5 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.2 +.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.5 euros/megawatt-hour -8.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.1% +.7 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.0% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +868 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -2.5% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Coal -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ARLP, PL, ACI, TLX, GFL, INTC, TMCR, MRLN, WFC, LUNR, WOLF, ALOY, CRK, ALOY, STAA, OPTX, BKSY, FLY, ASTS, REPX, FSLY, SPIR and KMX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ARKG 2) CL 3) TTWO 4) XLB 5) BTDR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KMX 2) LULU 3) NUAI 4) IT 5) NKTR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) MAGS 2) IYM 3) IYW 4) AIQ 5) GDXJ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +2.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +5.5% 2) Social Media +2.4% 3) I-Banking +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AVNS, TVTX, XNDU, BE, MGTX, CRDO, ANL, IONQ, QBTS, AOSL, TWST, APLD, HOOD, BTDR, RGTI, PSIX, LGND, ASST, IREN, LWLG, AAL, NNE, DAVE, DAL, ALK, ORKA, LWLG, CLS, PRAX, GLXY, SMR, CTGO, TEM, RIOT, CSIQ, TNGX, NBIS, CLSK, WYFI, CRCL, KC, RVMD, SKYT, CRWV, MWH, JD, SION, NAVN, STVN, SMCI, PENG, CDNL, KOD, AXON, INOD, TDG, ARQT, ORCL, MSTR, CHDN, PONY, KRUS, NTRA, META, SOFI, TAL, MU, LEGN, BLK, CYRX, JBIO, SGI, INFQ, MDA, ETOR, BLK, BLLN, EH, LEG, TSLA, AESI, MAIN, MITK, FLNG, LBRX, CPRX, GMAB, GME, PLTR, UAL and SNEX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GSAT 2) GPRO 3) CMPX 4) MAGS 5) RSP 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BE 2) TVTX 3) LGND 4) TDG 5) CLS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) DRAM 5) XLE
Charts:
 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ASML)/7.69
  • (BAC)/1.01
  • (FHN)/.50
  • (MTB)/4.02
  • (MS)/3.02
  • (PNC)/3.93
  • (PGR)/4.85 
After the Close: 
  • (HOMB)/.59
  • (JBHT)/1.44
  • (SLG)/1.08 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 0.0 versus -.2 in March.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.3% versus a +1.3% gain in Feb.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.5% gain in Feb.  

10:00 am EST

  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 37.0 versus 38.0 in March. 

2:00 pm EST

  • Fed releases Beige Book.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, IMF Meetings, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (ADBE) annual meeting, Citi AI Summit and the Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 +.8
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 69.3% of Issues Advancing, 28.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.27 +18.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$27.6M
  • 114 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 57.5% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.6 +5.3
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 78.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
  • Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 31.0% +5.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 31.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 40.0% +10.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 111.6 +.1%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 497.5 -17.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.5 +1.0%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.0 +2.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +8.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.8 -16.5%
  • Vix 18.1 -5.1%
  • Total Put/Call .65 -21.7%