Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising long-term rates, rising energy prices, technical selling and increasing emerging markets debt angst offsets seasonality, investor performance angst, fund inflows and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,841.40 +1.8%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,841.40 +1.8%

• DJIA 16,478.40 +1.9%

• NASDAQ 4,156.59 +2.4%

• Russell 2000 1,161.09 +3.2%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.42 +2.0%

• Wilshire 5000 19,336.50 +1.9%

• Russell 1000 Growth 859.23 +1.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 924.97 +1.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 441.54 +1.0%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,472.12 +2.6%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 898.31 +2.3%

• Transports 7,352.08 +2.0%

• Utilities 487.94 +.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 106.78 +4.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.09 +.9%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,158.23 +1.1%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 956.49 -.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 197,334 +1.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 789 +743

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.75 n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 346,700 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,629,694 n/a

• Total Put/Call .72 -2.7%

• OEX Put/Call 1.27 +27.0%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 -52.08%

• NYSE Arms .65 -28.57%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.46 -11.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.24 -6.17%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.6 +3.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.26 +1.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,029.52 +2.41%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.697 Trillion +.83%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.698 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 55.1 +16.0%

• AAII % Bears 18.5 -26.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 284.16 +1.0%

• Crude Oil 100.32 +1.71%

• Reformulated Gasoline 281.61 +2.6%

• Natural Gas 4.37 -2.15%

• Heating Oil 312.41 +3.1%

• Gold 1,214.0 +2.3%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 195.73 +1.6%

• Copper 338.50 +2.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 379.0 USD/Ton +.35%

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.0 USD/Ton +.98%

• Lumber 368.30 -1.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,366.93 -.7%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.9% -20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3752 +.05%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.80 -.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.40 +2.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +3.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/29

• US Dollar Index 80.39 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.79 +1.6%

• Yield Curve 261.0 +10 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.0% +11 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.989 Trillion +.61%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.0 -.7%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 164.0 +.4%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.55 +.4%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 103.35 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 227.64 +2.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 102.74 +2.74%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.50 +6.6%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 325.5 -6.0 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.5 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.88 -3.6%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 85.52 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 273.50 +2.2%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 93.0 -20.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.645 Trillion +.22%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,100.80 +1.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 348,000 +4,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.48% +1 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 351.10 -6.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.40 +2.0 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.10% +30 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.28/gallon +.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,277 +5.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,084.44 +1.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 255,456 -4.74%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilders +6.6%

• Disk Drive +5.9%

• Gold & Silver +4.8%

• Computer Hardware +4.2%

• Networking +3.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Retail +1.3% 

• Utilities +.9%

• REITs +.7%

• Airlines +.6%

• Coal +.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• MKTG, UTHR, XLRN, QTS, LMNR, RHT, SCHL, TRAK, TXT, GRC, TNDM, BNCN, FEYE, RMAX, FRP, ICEL, CCIX, DOOR, PKY, GPRE, ATMI, DRI, TCS, OSTK, NBHC, HAIN, MLHR and JNY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• WMC, TIBX, KMX, TXTR and TSRO

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.54 +1.70%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.62 +.62%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.26 +2.32%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.25 -1.79%

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -34.78%

• Total Put/Call .69 +7.81%

• NYSE Arms .53 -9.68% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.22 +2.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.53 +.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.55 -.34%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 273.76 +2.4%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 18.50 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +6.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.

• Yield Curve 261.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $134.0/Metric Tonne +1.44%
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.4 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +152 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.41%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.72% 2) REITs -.72% 3) Biotech -.60%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TXTR, SBLK, DDD, GIB, DGLD, AMTG, MJN, SCBT, LTC, WFM, AI, SKM, SHLO, FOSL, PSMT and HTS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AKAM 2) XLE 3) FCX 4) DDD 5) TWTR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TWTR 2) DAL 3) DDD 4) RJF 5) TXTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.13%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.04% 2) Networking +.96% 3) Gold & Silver +.52%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ICLD, S, VISN, CLF and AMBA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FOXA 2) MCP 3) GDXJ 4) WLL 5) SWKS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TXT 2) AAPL 3) AMZN 4) GDP 5) SINA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume