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Thursday, May 28, 2015

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Fed Rate Hike Fears, Global Growth Worries, Transport/Biotech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:09 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.62 +2.64%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.73 +.60%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.55 +1.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.64 +.45%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 62.0 -28.74%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +.94%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +36.24% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.82 +1.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,083.0 -1.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.48 +1.40%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.08 -2.28%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.02 +.87%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 290.78 +1.64%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.96 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 151.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.33/Metric Tonne -1.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.80 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.80 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.8 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:46 PM
Bloomberg:  
  • ECB Warns of Contagion Risk If Greece Deal Not Reached Fast. A failure to reach an agreement on Greece’s aid program soon may drive yields on bonds issued by other euro-area countries higher, the European Central Bank said. “In the absence of a quick agreement on structural implementation needs, the risk of an upward adjustment of the risk premia demanded on vulnerable euro-area sovereigns could materialize,” the ECB said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review published Thursday in Frankfurt. “The lengthy and uncertain process of negotiations between the newly formed Greek government and its creditors” has already contributed to bouts of extreme volatility in Greek markets, it said.
  • Ukraine Seeks Arms as Putin Makes Russian Troop Losses Secret. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appealed to the U.S. and Europe to arm his country in its conflict with pro-Russian separatists, as the Kremlin ordered an information blackout on deaths among troops sent on special operations. “We are not asking for offensive weapons, we are asking for defensive weapons just to defend our country,” Yatsenyuk told an international security conference in Kiev on Thursday. “We do understand that to use our military capacity to regain Donetsk or Luhansk is unacceptable.”
  • How an Equity Reversal Could Undo China's Recent Economic Growth. Is the rally over? The wild rally in China's equity markets may be coming to an end. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.5 percent Thursday as margin calls from brokers and a liquidity drain from the central bank spooked investors. A boom in the equity market has helped prevent a sharper slowdown in China's economic growth. What would a stock slump mean? 
  • China Stock Market Turnover Surges to Record. If volume dies, so will the index. More money is changing hands trading stocks in China than in the U.S., a market more than twice its size. Combined turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose to a record $380 billion on Thursday, exceeding the value of shares traded in the U.S on Wednesday by $132 billion, as the attached chart shows. Turnover in London was $8.9 billion on Wednesday.
  • Aussie Firms Shun Investment as RBA’s Growth Reboot Sputters. Australian businesses plan to cut investment in the next 12 months by the most on record as the economy struggles to find new sources of growth after the end of a decade-long mining investment boom. 
  • China Stock Boom Built on Leverage Shows How Fast It Can Reverse. China’s equity investors are getting a reminder that leverage has a downside. Losing days on the Shanghai exchange this month have been deeper than at any other time since 2009, punctuated by the benchmark index’s 6.5 percent tumble on Thursday. At 1.65 percent, the gauge’s average retreat on down days this year is the largest among the world’s top 10 markets. It’s also bigger than the mean move of 1.44 percent when the index gains.
  • Emerging Stocks Slump as Shanghai Shares Halt Seven-Day Advance. Emerging-market stocks fell to a seven-week low as Chinese shares slid for the first time in eight days after brokerages curbed margin lending. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 1.1 percent to 1,008.21 at 11:12 a.m. in New York. Shanghai-listed stocks slumped the most since mid-January. Brazil’s equity benchmark declined as lenders slid after data showed faster-than-forecast inflation. Qatar’s benchmark tumbled the most this year as the country’s soccer World Cup plans came under scrutiny. A gauge of developing-nation currencies slid for a ninth day, the longest streak of declines in more than two months. Speculation that the U.S. is moving closer to an interest-rate increase has pushed the MSCI developing-nation stock gauge down 2.8 percent in the last four days. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 6.5 percent, ending a 15 percent rally. Citic Securities Co. sank 9.4 percent after several rivals increased their margin requirement, the collateral put up by an investor when borrowing. Changjiang Securities Co. dropped 9.5 percent after joining competitors in the move. China Construction Bank Corp. lost 3.7 percent as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 3.5 percent. Record growth in margin debt helped fuel a 127 percent gain in the Shanghai index over the past year, the most among global gauges tracked by Bloomberg. Margin lending by Chinese brokerages exceeded 2 trillion yuan ($322 billion) as of May 27, five times the level of a year earlier, exchange data showed.
  • Europe Stocks Decline on Concern Greece Far From Reaching Deal. European stocks fell for the fourth time in five days amid concern Greece may not reach an accord with creditors before a payment due next week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent to 406.83 at the close of trading, paring a drop of as much as 1 percent. All but two of 19 industry groups slipped.
  • Investors Pulling Energy Sector Bets for First Time in 8 Months. Investors are cautiously pulling money out of energy producers for the first time in eight months, taking short-term gains after oil rebounded from a six-year low. More than $1.55 billion has been withdrawn this month from exchange-traded funds concentrated on energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. It’s on pace for the first monthly setback for the group since investors began pouring into the sector in October with an eye toward profiting from an eventual recovery in prices.
  • Fed’s Williams Sees Rate Rise This Year as Growth to Recover. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the U.S. will likely raise interest rates later this year as the world’s biggest economy recovers from a weak first quarter. The Fed will probably increase rates gradually and move them to normal levels over the next few years, he said in answer to questions after speaking at a regulatory symposium in Singapore Thursday. An increase is on the table at every meeting, including June’s, he said. “I expect they will be raising rates later this year,” Williams told reporters. “The U.S. economy’s doing well, we’re moving back towards our goals.”
  • Consumer Comfort in U.S. Slumps on Views of Buying Climate. Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell for a seventh consecutive week and attitudes about whether it was a good time to spend slumped by the most since 2011. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index decreased to 40.9 in the period ended May 24, the lowest level since late November, from 42.4 the prior week. The decline in Americans’ assessments of the buying climate was accompanied by the biggest drop in sentiment among women in more than seven years.
  • Mortgage Rates in the U.S. Increase to Highest for 2015. Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose to a 2015 high this week as bond investors reacted to reports showing the housing market is heating up. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.87 percent, up from 3.84 percent last week and matching the level at the end of 2014, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The average 15-year rate increased to 3.11 percent from 3.05 percent, according to the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage financier.
ZeroHedge:
  • Welcome To The Recovery 2015: JP Morgan To Fire 5000.
  • Will The Real Hillary Clinton Please Stand Up? (video)
  • Poroshenko Threatens To Declare Martial Law In Ukraine Within Hours "To Demonstrate Readiness For War".
  • The Stock Market - A Picture Of Excess. (graph)
  • "The Greek Endgame Is Here": Probability Of IMF Default Now 70%, Says Deutsche Bank.
  • How Healthcare Is Dooming the U.S. Economy (In Just 3 Charts).
  • Oil Prices Drop To 7-Week Lows - Here's Why. (graph)
  • Pending Home Sales Jump Most Since September 2012 To Highest Since 2006, Driven By The Northeast. (graph)
  • Financial Insanity Grips The World.
  • Initial Jobless Claims Rise, Miss Expectations - Gone Nowhere Since The End Of QE3. (graph)
  • Bull Market Dealt A Significant Blow? (graph)
Business Insider: 
  • Here's what happens when you compare the Clintons' vast wealth to that of average Americans.
  • US containerized exports have plunged off the chart. (graph)
  • The Federal Reserve poses a huge threat to the biotech merger 'feeding frenzy'.
  • This is how you know China is worried.
Reuters:
  • Saudi Aramco may raise rigs in 2016 if oil prices rise -sources. Saudi Aramco may raise the number of its oil and gas drilling rigs to as high as 250 next year if oil prices continue to firm and as domestic demand for gas increases, industry sources said on Thursday. Currently the national energy giant has 212 rigs of both types in operation and that could rise to between 220 and 250 if conditions permit, sources familiar with the plans said. "It all depends on the oil price of course," said one.
Telegraph:
  • IMF openly warns of Grexit threat as judgment day approaches. Christine Lagarde admits that a Greek exit from eurozone 'is a possibility' as bail-out talks take Athens to the edge of the abyss.
ARD TV:
  • IMF's Lagarde Says Much Work Remains on Greece. Greece and its creditors aren't close to a financing deal, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in an interview. Sees "a lot of ground to cover if we want to reach a comprehensive approach to putting the Greek economy in a better position, making sure that at some stage the investors are interested again in investing in Greece, that the Greek economy creates jobs."
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:29 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.57%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -3.85% 2) Steel -2.20% 3) Oil Service -1.92%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BRCM, AVGO, SERV, SMTC, CGI, CPRT, MPAA, CP, URI, TDF, MOMO, AAXJ, SIG, CAF, SAFM, WDAY, TEX, LVNTA, HAWK, TOUR, MIC, RAI, LINE, CENX, UHS, AAWW and OSK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) OCR 2) JOY 3) ALXN 4) CRR 5) JNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SMTC 2) TFM 3) UNP 4) YHOO 5) PAA
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:10 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.51%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +.89% 2) Homebuilders +.88% 3) Gaming +.68%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RALY, EXPR, IMAX, GPRO, NYLD, ANF, SHAK and WDC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) A 2) RMD 3) XOMA 4) GLD 5) ASHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CMG 2) PANW 3) RL 4) GPRO 5) ARG
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:47 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running 14.1% Below 100-day average
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
  • 22.4% of Issues Advancing, 74.8% Declining
  • 38 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
  • 52.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.2
  • Vix 13.8
  • Total Put/Call 1.02
  • TRIN/Arms 1.11
0 comments

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:29 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greece Warned Deal Not There Yet as G-7 Ministers Visit Dresden. The euro area’s biggest players have a message for Greece: its reform pledges aren’t worth anything until they’re laid down in black and white. As German and French officials arrived in Dresden for a meeting of Group of Seven finance chiefs, they pushed back against Greek claims that an agreement to unlock bailout funds is near. Negotiations on the economic reforms needed to release that cash have dragged on for months, raising the prospect that Greece may leave it too late to avoid a debt default.
  • Will China’s Debt Bubble Shake Up Global Economy? (video)
  • Carter Warns China U.S. Will Go Wherever Global Law Permits. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter delivered the strongest U.S. warning yet against China’s moves in the South China Sea, demanding a halt to land reclamation in disputed waters and vowing that the U.S. will remain Asia’s leading power “for decades to come.” Heading for a 10-day tour of the Asia-Pacific, Carter called on countries in the region to settle territorial claims with diplomacy rather than force. 
  • China Brokers Tighten Margin Lending Rules to Limit Rising Risks. Chinese brokerages are tightening rules for lending to stock investors to try to limit the risks from any market bust. Changjiang Securities Co. joined larger rivals GF Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. in increasing its margin requirement, the collateral put up by an investor when borrowing. The firm announced the increase to 80 percent from 60 percent in a statement on Wednesday. 
  • Australian Business Investment Falls at Double Expected Pace. Australian business investment fell twice as fast as economists predicted last quarter, signaling the central bank’s targeted transition to growth outside mining is yet to gain traction. The currency slumped half a U.S. cent. Capital spending fell 4.4 percent from the final three months of last year, data showed Thursday, compared with a median forecast for a 2.2 percent drop. Companies predicted they would invest A$104 billion ($80 billion) in the year ending June 30, 2016, a 25 percent fall from the estimate a year earlier.  
  • Japan’s Retail Sales Rise Less Than Forecast as Tax Weighs. Japan’s retail sales rose less than forecast in April, signaling a weak start to the second quarter for an economy that is still weighed down by last year’s sales-tax increase. Sales climbed 0.4 percent from March, when they dropped 1.8 percent, government data released Thursday showed. Economists had forecast a gain of 1.1 percent.
  • Yen Drops to 12-Year Low as Yellen Builds Case for Fed Rate Rise. The yen fell to a 12-year low versus the dollar as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates, sharpening the contrast with the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented monetary stimulus. Japan’s currency weakened to 124.20 against the greenback as of 11:54 a.m. in Tokyo on Thursday. It touched 124.25, the lowest since December 2002. 
  • Asian Stocks Track Global Gains on U.S. Tech Rally, Greece Bets. Asian stocks rose after U.S. and European shares rallied amid gains in technology shares and optimism about a Greek debt deal. Japan’s Topix index climbed as the yen traded near an almost eight-year low against the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 152.47 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Oil Bulls Beware, Soaring Tanker Rates Show Supply Glut Persists. A sudden surge in demand for supertankers drove benchmark charter rates 57 percent higher in the two weeks through May 20. OPEC will have almost half a billion barrels of oil in transit to buyers at the start of June, the most this year, while analysts say about 20 million barrels is being stored on ships in another indication the glut has yet to dissipate. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping the most oil in more than two years, determined to defend market share rather than prices. A record cut to the number of active U.S. drilling rigs and billions of dollars of spending reductions by companies since last year’s price plunge has yet to translate into a slump in barrels produced. The world is producing about 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than it needs, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
  • Financial Vulnerability Haunts U.S. Families After Crisis. Five years after the recession ended, many Americans still teeter on the financial brink, barely prepared tohandle an emergency expense and aging toward retirements they haven’t saved for, a Federal Reserve report shows. About 47 percent of 5,896 respondents in the Fed’s 2014 household survey, taken last October and November, wouldn’t be able to cover an emergency $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money. While that marks an improvement from 52 percent last year, the report states that it shows many Americans to be “ill-prepared for a financial disruption.”
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Broadcom(BRCM) Is Latest Target of Chip Rival. Deal would value semiconductor maker at more than $35 billion. Chip maker Avago Technologies Ltd. is in advanced talks to buy rival Broadcom Corp. in a deal worth about $35 billion, the latest in a wave of takeovers for the companies that supply parts to power smartphones, tablets and other gadgets. 
  • Traders Pile In at the Close. End-of-day action affects costs, liquidity in stock market. The middle of the day has become awfully quiet on the U.S. stock market, as index funds and computer models push the action toward the end of the trading day.
  • EPA’s Amphibious Attack An expansive new rule lets Washington regulate any creek or pothole. While retrenching abroad, the Obama Administration remains committed to expanding Washington’s footprint at home. Behold the Environmental Protection Agency’s rewrite Wednesday of the Clean Water Act that extends federal jurisdiction over tens of millions of acres of private land.
  • Schoolroom Climate Change Indoctrination. In one assignment, students measure the size of their family’s carbon footprint and suggest ways to shrink it. While many American parents are angry about the Common Core educational standards and related student assessments in math and English, less attention is being paid to the federally driven green Common Core that is now being rolled out across the country. Under the guise of the first new K-12 science curriculum to be introduced in 15 years, the real goal seems to be to expose students to politically correct climate-change orthodoxy during their formative learning years. The Next Generation of Science Standards were...
Fox News:
  • Pentagon says ‘live anthrax’ inadvertently shipped across US. (video) The Pentagon revealed Wednesday that "live anthrax" was shipped, apparently by accident, from a lab in Utah to as many as nine states over the course of a year. Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren assured "there is no known risk to the general public" and said an investigation is under way. But precautions are being taken for potentially exposed workers in labs where the samples were sent. A U.S. official told Fox News that four people in three companies are being treated for "post-exposure" and being prescribed prophylaxis.
MarketWatch.com:
  • IRS data theft: 5 things you need to know.
  • HSBC cuts China outlook for GDP, exports.
  • Obamacare to add billions in insurance overhead costs, study says. Obamacare will cost insurers more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in additional administrative costs by 2022, a new study released Wednesday says. The findings published in Health Affairs magazine call for a universal single-payer system because it would reduce, rather than add, to administrative costs.
CNBC:
  • Number of takeover offers highest since 2007 level.
  • Dollar could be getting ready to roar.
  • Fallen Lehman chief opens real estate brokerage. Just seven years after his brokerage firm collapsed under a mountain of troubled mortgages, former Lehman Bros. Chairman and CEO Dick Fuld is back in the real estate business. 
  • Shake Shack(SHAK) not a great investment: Strategist. With a price-earnings multiple of more than 1,000, "you're going to have to wait 1,000 years to get any money back that you invest in the company at the current rate of earnings. It's a premium to the industry that is not warranted," he added.
Zero Hedge:
  • Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Singer Reveals The "Bigger Short".
  • An Insane Financial World.
  • The Global Economy As Seen From "The Man In The Moon".
  • Do Not Show This Chart To Bank Of Japan Governor Kuroda. (graph)
  • Understanding The Next 10-Years Of Low Returns. (graph)
  • All It Takes For Panic-Sellers To Become Manic-Buyers: One Made Up Rumor. (graph)
  • "Ms. Wantanabe" Bets On Resurgent Yen As PE Cashes Out. (graph)
  •  Crony Capitalism At Work - Boeing Threatens To Leave US If Ex-Im Subsidy Yanked.
Business Insider:
  • REPORT: China is putting weapons on its artificial islands in the South China Sea.
  • Richmond Fed president: Letting banks fail will restore market discipline.
  • IRS hack of 100,000 taxpayers' info traced to Russia.
  • Reuters reporter: Russia is amassing unmarked tanks and soldiers on its border with Ukraine.
Financial Times:
  • More than half world’s countries now producing jihadis. More than half of the world’s countries are now producing jihadis to fill the ranks of violent Sunni terrorist organisations in the Middle East, according to a UN report. The al-Qaeda network and its schismatic rival, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) have seen more than 25,000 mujahideen join them in recent years, it states, creating an “unprecedented” threat to national and international security in both the “immediate and long-term” that most governments have failed to grasp the significance of so far.
Telegraph:
  • Creditors dash Greek optimism as US warns country faces an 'abyss' of a euro exit. Hopes of a draft agreement with creditors is dismissed by European officials after warnings from the White House over a Greek "accident".
Securities Times:
  • More China Brokerages Tighten Margin Lending Rules. Guosen Securities raised margin requirement for stock financing on 908 stocks, citing a statement from the brokerage.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ANF)/-.35
  • (FLO)/.30
  • (FRED)/-.01
  • (JKS)/.45
  • (SAFM)/3.29
  • (SHLD)/-2.59
  • (SIG)/1.61
  • (TECD)/.72
  •  (TITN)/-.25
  • (TD)/1.11
  • (AVGO)/2.00
  • (DECK)/.00
  • (GME)/.59
  • (OVTI)/.21
  • (PSUN)/-.11
  • (SPLK)/-.03
  • (ULTA)/.93
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 270K versus 274K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2200K versus 2211K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales for April are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,200,000 barrels versus a -2,674,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,163,640 barrels versus a -2,774,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -550,000 barrels versus a -546,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.3% versus a +1.2% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Eurozone Business Climate report, Japan CPI/Jobless rate reports, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (A) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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