Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -4.3% 2) Steel -2.3% 3) Energy -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GME, KOSS, AMC, RNA, DRNA, HOL, NRG, MILE, CRM, WEX, BMRN, TPC, FL, CLVR, REGI, SRAC, CARS, CDXC, SUPN, FOCS, FLR, ENV, CRI, WKHS, INT, ROOT, ZYXI and VST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VST 2) FL 3) HPQ 4) CVNA 5) WW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TPIC 2) SPCE 3) FLY 4) NKLA 5) MPLN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +3.4% 2) Homebuilding +2.7% 3) Semis +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMCX, FSR, SEM, ABNB, RKT, LPSN, ETSY, AERI, W, TRIP, MGNX, GRPN, UVE, WW, CVNA, CZR, RVLV, ACHC, CCIV, SSP, NTRA, EVH, EB, DKNG, BLUE, HPQ, VAC, WSC, FTAI, RCII and DMYI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HPQ 2) VST 3) COF 4) FL 5) DHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LPSN 2) CVNA 3) ETSY 4) HPQ 5) DKNG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 31.3% of Issues Advancing, 66.2% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 80.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,248.0 -315.0 points
• Vix 29.9 +3.6%
• Total Put/Call .94 +19.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.89 +132.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 +3.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.75 +2.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.96 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,497.0 -66.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.7 -5.6%.
• FTSE 100 futures -1.0%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures-.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CRI)/2.73
• (DKNG)/-.49
• (FLR)/.21
• (FL)/1.35
• (SSP)/.87
• (STRA)/1.50
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated to widen to -$83.0B versus -$82.5B in Dec.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Dec. 
• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +9.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -.2% decline in Dec.
• The PCE Core MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus 63.8 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Senate Intel Hearing on SolarWinds hack and the Eurozone Import Price report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Valuation Concerns, Emerging Market Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.0 +26.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,680.0 -121.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.53 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.4 +9.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -36.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 +7.3%

• NYSE Arms .73 +14.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.17 +6.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 474.85 -1.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.02 +3.48%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.78 -.27%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 181.89 +8.22%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.33 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.17 -1.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 127.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 171.85 USD/Metric Tonne +3.44%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 85.0 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 160.4 +6.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.7 +2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -297 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -158 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my energy/industrial/medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -3.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.5% 2) Homebuilding -5.5% 3) Semis -4.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLAB, BKNG, ADPT, FAF, FNF, RCL, MNRL, MGTA, PBFX, GTES, KURA, NCLH, HALO, SFTW, GPRE, GBOX, NVDA, TMDX, RTP, GH, DPZ, ACIC, PLTR, DMYI, UNVR, SBGI, ANSS, BBY, VAPO, TREE, TRIP, VVNT, PTVE, CLF, SPT, NTAP, TRTX, FRX, TDOC, GBT, HZO, PGNY, ACA, RDFN, PLAN, ESTC, PZZA, CARS, HSC, IIPR, HCC and PING
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EMB 2) BK 3) KMX 4) RDFN 5) TDOC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HCC 2) PING 3) EH 4) FUBO 5) GBT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume