Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.9 +2.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,173.0 -5.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.74%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.4 +.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call 1.20 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms .91 +33.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.02 -.45%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.92 +2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.67 -1.62%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 284.88 +5.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.30 +.46%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,707.59 -83.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 46.0 +3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.70 -.30%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.53 +.43%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .83% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 18.25(2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 145.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.73%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.4 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.3 +2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 115 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +2/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.0%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 27.5% of Issues Advancing, 68.7% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 98 New Lows
• 33.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,187.0 +10.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,701 -.64%
  
• Vix 30.3 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call 1.18 +4.4%
• TRIN/Arms .73 +7.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Alarmed by Russia’s Aggression, Europe Rethinks Its China Ties.
• Biden’s Ukraine Aid Risks Slowdown as GOP Balks at Covid Tie-In.
• Ukraine Latest: Biden Seeks Aid, Power to Seize Russian Wealth.  
• China’s Sudden Currency Plunge Raises Risk of a 2015-Style Panic. 
  
• Shanghai Covid Cases Rise For First Time in Six Days.   
• Yen Traders Brace for Choppy Holiday Week With Fed Poised to Act.
  
• U.S. Equity Futures Fall as Amazon, Apple Sap Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Europe Seeks to Draw Tougher Line on Russian Gas Threat.
• Oil Heads for Longest Run of Monthly Gains Since Early 2018.  
• Earnings Exacerbate Stock Market Volatility Whipped Up by Fed.  
• Coinbase Cracks Down on Front-Running of New Crypto Listings.  
• Manchin Rejects Biden’s EV Tax Credit as ‘Ludicrous’.  
• Investor Who Called Housing Top and Bottom Says It's Time to Sell.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Economy Contracted on Trade, Supply Disruptions.
• Biden Seeks New Ukraine Aid as Russia Makes Slow Progress in Seizing East.
• Latest Updates: House Passes Ukraine Lend-Lease Bill Aimed at Easing Military-Gear Transfers.
• Germany Drops Opposition to Embargo on Russian Oil.
• Oil Middlemen Fueled Putin’s War Machine. Now They’re Getting Out.
• Rumors of Stagflation in First Quarter GDP. The economy surprises economists by shrinking 1.4%, which should kill a tax increase.
• Americans for Merit-Based Admissions. Poll respondents say academic achievement matters more than race. 
• Travel Is Back, but Airline and Hotel Workers Are Not.
• The Permian Basin Oil Field Is Running Out of Workers, Materials—and Cash.

Fox News:     

• NYC theater pulls plug on pro-life play countering abortion comedy, cites 'safety' concerns.
• WATCH: Social media explodes after Biden's latest 'alarming' gaffe.
• Pro-life medical experts rip media's coverage of abortion: Not following 'science' but 'political rhetoric'.

CNBC.com:

• Robinhood shares fall as retail brokerage reports shrinking revenue, fewer active users.
• Hertz CEO says rebounding business travel could tighten an already-constrained used car market.
• We went to Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Target & Walmart in 3 cities — here’s where staples cost the most.

MarketWatch:              

• Intel stock declines as chip maker doubles down on outlook despite headwinds.
  
• KLA confirms supply-chain issues for chip-equipment companies, but stock still ticks higher.
  
• Roku’s stock pops in ‘relief rally’ on rise in usage.   
• ‘Buyers of a median-price home are looking at a monthly mortgage payment that is almost 50% higher than it was a year ago.’ The 30-year mortgage rate dips slightly to 5.1%.

Zero Hedge:

• Is President Biden OK?
• Kansas Senate Overrides Governor’s Veto On Transgender Sports Ban Bill.
• Whistleblowers: CDC, FDA "Altered" Covid Guidance And Suppressed Findings Amid Political Pressure.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Tearing Down The Silicon Valley Wall.
• Apple Loses All After Hours Gains, Slides After Warning Supply Constraints Will Cost $4-$8 Billion.
• Federal Judge Explains Why He's Blocking Biden Admin's Termination Of Title 42.
• Moderna Asks FDA To Authorize Covid Vaccine For Children Under 6.
• Sell low buy high pain continues.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks notched firm gains despite US GDP contraction.
• 'Libs Of TikTok' WaPo-Dox Backfires After Account Gains 500,000 New Followers In One Week.
• The Defense Production Act Cannot Increase Critical Mineral Production Without Streamlining Project Permitting.
• After Backlash, Google Turns Off 'Newspeak' Correction Tool (For Now).
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: DXY prints 20yr highs, NDX surges, and first US GDP contraction post-2020 brushed aside.
• Amazon Crashes After Reporting Catastrophic Guidance, Worst Revenue Growth In Decade.
• "WTF Was That!" - Stocks Explode Higher As US Economy Heads Into Recession.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Greene Plans Twitter-Ban Appeal, Urges Musk to Meet With Suspended Users.  
• Russia Warns of Retaliation Against US for 'Idiotic' Sanctions.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Psaki Refuses to Comment on the Far-Left Activist Overseeing Biden Regime’s New ‘Disinformation Governance Board’ (VIDEO).
• Biden Brags, “I Think We’re… Seeing Enormous Growth in the Country” – After Economy Shrinks by 1.4% in First Quarter (VIDEO).
• Dr. Fauci Walks Back Covid Comments, Says Pandemic Not Over in US After White House Sets Him Straight.
• Biden’s Military Is “Using the COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate to “Intentionally Purge” Religious Service Members”.
• WATCH: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Tells Jim Acosta to His Face, ‘You Know Why People Don’t Like You? Because You’re a Liar’.
• “2000 Mules” Is Taking on a Life of Its Own, And It Hasn’t Even Been Released Yet.
• Elon Musk Tweets How He Didn’t Get More Conservative – Libs Got More Radical.
• Too Little, Too Late? Georgia Governor Kemp Signs Bill to Empower Investigations Into Voter Fraud, Election Crimes.
• A 15-Year-Old Chicago Boy Committed Suicide After Bullies Relentlessly Targeted Him For Being ‘Unvaccinated,’ According to Lawsuit.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Seeks to Control Global EV Supply Chain, Leaving US Vulnerable: Experts.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  77.5 -2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,176.0 -3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.6%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/3.14
• (AB)/.84
• (AZN)/1.68
• (B)/.40
• (BLMN)/.74
• (BMY)/1.89
• (CRI)/1.39
• (CBOE)/1.68
• (CHTR)/6.66
• (CVX)/3.44
• (CL)/.75
• (XOM)/2.23
• (HON)/1.86
• (LYB)/3.55
• (MGA)/1.10
• (NWL)/.27
• (PSX)/1.27
• (WY)/1.23
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
• Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in February.
• Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in February.
• The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 62.9 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German GDP report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.2 -10.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,314.0 +533.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.45 +1.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +5.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.2 -4.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms .56 -22.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.1 -2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.17 -.89%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.72 +1.95%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.11 -1.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 270.20 -.93%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.13 -.05%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22,616.70 +18.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +3.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 42.75 +3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.74 -.32%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.32 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .81% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 20.5(2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -25.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.7 -1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 +4.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +9.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 113 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(+1.0 percertage point) of 1/14 peak +5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.2%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +560 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• EU Tells Gas Companies Not to Bend to Russia’s Demand for Rubles.
  
• Biden Approves More Gas Export Projects as Russia Cuts Supply to Europe.
  
• Ukraine Latest: White House Readies Long-Term Assistance Package.  
• Major Shipping Firm Sees Signs of Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Easing.  
• China’s Hangzhou Starts Mass Covid Testing; Shanghai Cases Drop.
• Banks Slash Yuan Forecasts as China’s Economy Reels From Covid.
• U.S. Futures Rise, Stocks Steady as Meta Aids Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips as Investors Weigh China’s Lockdowns, Russian War.
• Bill Hwang’s Archegos Catastrophe Was Wilder Than Anyone Knew.
• Fed Nominees to Wait Until Ailing Democrats Return, Brown Says.   
• Stock Rout Is Fed’s ‘Best-Case Scenario’ as Powell-Put Era Ends.  
• More NYC Apartment Renters Are Moving Out Instead of Paying Higher Rates.  
• Apollo Throws Struggling Carvana $1.6 Billion Junk-Bond Lifeline.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies.
• Latest Updates: U.S. Weighs Listing Russia as State Sponsor of Terrorism.
• Russia’s Energy Extortion of Poland and Bulgaria. With more U.S. help for Europe, the ploy could boomerang on Vladimir Putin.
• Fentanyl Kills So Fast That Aid Groups Are Rethinking How to Fight Overdoses.

Fox News:   

• Teachers union boss facing potentially serious consequences over alleged 'doctored quotation'.
• Randi Weingarten says parental rights bills are 'the way in which wars start'.
• Fauci forced to backtrack after claiming US is 'certainly' out of 'pandemic phase'.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta, Qualcomm, Ford, PayPal and more.
• Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009.
• Qualcomm revenue pops 41% driven by Android phone chip sales.
• Pinterest jumps after earnings beat.

MarketWatch:            

• Ford’s Rivian investment drags down Q1 earnings, and supply-chain challenges remain.
  
• Teladoc stock plunges more than 30% after earnings outlook slashed, massive impairment charge.  
• PayPal cuts earnings outlook, but user growth quells some fears.

Zero Hedge:

• DHS Creating 'Disinformation Governance Board' Ahead Of Midterms.
• Russia Hoax: Durham Staffer Accidentally Reveals Emails Showing Coordination Between Fusion GPS And Media.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks ended a choppy session mixed, although futures benefitted post-Meta earnings.
• Germany Supports 'Gradual' EU Ban On Russian Oil As Moscow Rejects Gas Payment From Seized Trading Unit.
• Plastic Grocery Bag Bans Actually Boost Sale Of Small Plastic Garbage Bags: Study.
• Iran & China Declare Deepened Military Cooperation To Confront 'US Unilateralism'.
• More Secret Gender Transition Closets Discovered In Public Schools.
• "Bigger Mess Than Last Year" - Global Supply Chain Crisis Could Emerge By Summer.
• Luongo On Disney's Demise: "This Is Not The Way".
• Rates reversing?
• Biden Administration Releases Plan To Deal With Expected Illegal Immigration Surge.
• Fauci Admits "Pandemic Phase" Of COVID Is Over.
• Southern California Asks Millions To Cut Outdoor Water Use Amid Drought.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks pause and DXY firms amid China lockdowns, peak earnings season, and the EU gas crisis.
• Facebook Soars After Reporting Solid User Growth Despite Revenue Miss And Weak Guidance.
• FANG FUBAR, Bonds & Boeing Battered As Dollar Index Nears 20-Year-High.

 Newsmax: 

• US Judge Halts WH Preparations for End of US Asylum Limit.  
• Rep. Reschenthaler: 'America First' Driving 'New Republican Party'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Hillary Clinton Takes a Swipe at Trump, Goes on Woke, Feminist Rant at Madeleine Albright’s Funeral (VIDEO).
• Twitter Source Leaks Internal Slack Channel Reconfirming Shadowbanning is Real (VIDEO).
• **HUGE** Georgia State Elections Board FINALLY Issue First Subpoenas to True the Vote on Ballot Trafficking Investigation INCLUDING INFORMATION ON ALLEGED WHISTLEBLOWER!
• Biden to Teachers: “They’re Not Somebody Else’s Children, They’re Yours When You’re in the Classroom” (VIDEO).
  
• Wow! McCarthy DEFENDS Leaked Jan. 10, 2021 Audio and GOP Lawmakers Cheer — Talked of Removing Trump from Office, Urging Tech Giants to Silence Conservatives.
• JUST IN: Masked, Shielded, and Quadruple-Vaxxed Maxine Watters, 83, Tests Positive for Covid-19 – Says She’s “Grateful to be Fully Vaccinated”.
• Madrid’s Deputy Minister for Public Health Claims Cases of Hepatitis on Young Kids Might be “Related to Covid-19 Vaccine”.
• California Democrats to Raise State’s Gas Tax to 53.6-Cents Per Gallon This Summer.
• Goya Foods CEO Warns We’re on the Precipice of a Global Food Crisis.
• DHS Chief Mayorkas Absurdly Claims, “We Have Effectively Managed” Biden’s Border Crisis – As Millions of Illegals Pour Over the Border (VIDEO).
• Former Rep. Steve King Reveals What Really Goes On In Capitol Hill: McCarthy ‘Worshipped’ The New York Times And Is Forcing GOP Members To Sell Out To Globalists.
• Welp, That Backfired: LibsofTikTok Trolls WaPo Crybully Taylor Lorenz After Gaining Hundreds of Thousands of Followers on Twitter, Breaking ONE MILLION.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Visitor Logs Reveal Meetings Between Hunter Biden Business Partner and Joe Biden.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.75 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.75 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.37 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,760.0 -17.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.9 -3.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.63%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MO)/1.09
• (AEP)/1.20
• (BAX)/.81
• (BC)/2.33
• (CAT)/2.60
• (CMCSA)/.81
• (DISH)/.75
• (DPZ)/3.08
• (LLY)/2.30
• (FCN)/1.44
• (GWW)/6.12
• (HSY)/2.10
• (IP)/.56
• (IRM)/.71
• (JKS)/.49
• (KDP)/.33
• (LH)/6.01
• (MA)/2.16
• (MCD)/2.17
• (MRK)/1.83
• (NOC)/5.98
• (BTU)/2.20
• (PHM)/1.73
• (RS)/7.18
• (SIRI)/.08
• (SAH)/2.37
• (LUV)/-.30
• (SWK)/1.70
• (STRA)/.74
• (TROW)/.76
• (TWTR)/.02
  

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/8.50
• (AAPL)/1.43
• (BZH)/1.05
• (FSLR)/-.44
• (GILD)/1.81
• (INTC)/.79
• (KLAC)/4.82
• (MHK)/2.91
• (OLN)/2.34
• (RMAX)/.50
• (HOOD)/-.36
• (SKYW)/-.01
• (SYK)/1.94
• (TEX)/.47
• (TRUP)/-.02
• (X)/2.95
• (WDC)/1.49
• (ZEN)/.15
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.9% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.5% versus a +2.5% gain in 4Q.
• The GDP Price Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +7.2% versus a +7.1% gain in 4Q.
• The Core PCE QoQ for 1Q is estimated to rise +5.5% versus a +5.0% gain in 4Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 180K versus 184K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1399K versus 1417K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 35.0 versus 37.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.