BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Inflation Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Construction Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:42 PM

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.4%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +.9%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 unch.
European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.0 +.9%
Emerging Market CDS Index 153.2 +1.4%
Israel Sovereign CDS 51.8 -4.0%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.9 -.6

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.7 -3.5

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.2 +1.8

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.3 -1.0
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.80 +.16: Growth Rate +23.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 907.47 +.69: Growth Rate +75.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.5 unch.
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -11.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 41.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.7 -1.6%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.60 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.6% +1.4 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.54% +3.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -5.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.0% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 63.7%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -620 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -266 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my energy/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 3:02 PM

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Airlines -4.6% 2) Gold & Silver -4.0% 3) Computer Hardware -3.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

HSBC, MT, RCUS, HMY, SOFI, GKOS, CEG, JKS, STM, CROX, ENSG, PHYS, MAMA, MRVL, ARCB, XP, AVGO, LMB, CELC, SWBI, TFII, BLD, GM, TOYO, AEM, UMC, XPO, BILL, AAL, AGI, GFI, AKR, TLN, NET, PPTA, SLM, NXT, ODFL, GLXY, FCEL, CAT, OMDA, FLNC, VSH, GEV, DMRA, TNGX, AU, FLNC, SW, INSM, SKM, CCJ, METC, GNRC, DRUG, FPS, SAIL, PRE, DNTH, PRIM, SA, ADUR, QXO, HIMX, CGEM, WOLF, BE, SMMT, EZPW, LAZ and SMCI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) EWG 2) EQT 3) BNY 4) EOSE 5) MMM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) UNFI 2) CRM 3) DBI 4) CRNC 5) MRVL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) ITA 2) RAAX 3) BAI 4) KWEB 5) SKYY

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:48 PM

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Energy +2.3% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Telecom +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

FAC, CBRL, VELO, CASY, HROW, UNFI, ALOY, MUSA, TGTX, AAOI, CHA, APPS, DXYZ, TTI, OFRM, BJRI, HOOD, ELF, CAVA, BKH, NWE, DKNG, TLK, FUN, PENN, ZLAB, BILI, NP, GLIBK, BROS, NTES, CNK, LMND, RNR, AMRX, ICHR, CPB, RYAN, VPG, AVO, DQ, RSI, TEM, OOMA, YUMC, TEO, CRDO and PTRN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) HPP 2) SGML 3) NRG 4) CBRL 5) CRK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) CBRL 2) CASY 3) CLOV 4) FRMI 5) SJM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) IGV 3) ESML 4) CHAT 5) XLK

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:26 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(DRVN)/.24

After the Close:

(ADBE)/5.82
(LEN)/1.24
(RH)/-2.12

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 225K the prior week.
Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1785K versus 1777K prior.
PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.4% gain in April.
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in April.

12:00 am EST

Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The ECB Meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, OPEC Monthly Report, WASDE report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report. (ENS) investor day, (WFRD) annual meeting, (GNRC) annual meeting, (OLLI) annual meeting, (IR) annual meeting, (CMG) annual meeting, (LYV) annual meeting, (ASTS) annual meeting, (CPNG) annual meeting, (ZM) annual meeting, (HON) investor day, (HIMS) annual meeting and the Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 1:54 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -2.5
4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
49.4% of Issues Advancing, 48.3% Declining
TRIN/Arms .88 -3.3%
Non-Block Money Flow -$34.6M
105 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
53.4% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 52.1 +1.4

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 33.0% -5.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% -3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 36.0% -9.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 119.5 -.4%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -7.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 97.0% +14.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.75 +5.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.5 -2.0%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.3 -2.6%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) unch.
1-Day Vix 20.7 +.4%
Vix 21.8 +9.5%
Total Put/Call .87 -9.4%

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 1:48 PM