BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, February 25, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:23 PM

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- MBIA Inc.(MBI) seeking to stave off a crippling credit rating downgrade, will stop writing guarantees on asset-backed securities for six months and will separate that business from its municipal unit within five years.
- Iran won’t suspend uranium enrichment as demanded in a proposed UN Security Council resolution set for a vote this week, Iran’s ambassador said.
- Tiffany(TIF) rose the most in more than two weeks in NY trading as investors speculated that LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world’s largest luxury-goods maker, may make a bid to buy it.
- PIMCO’s Bill Gross said the firm is buying US AA, A-rated corporate bonds.

MarketWatch.com:
- Foreign buyers eye US homes.
- As the stalemate over Microsoft’s bid to buy Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) enters is third week, some analysts are already pointing to a winner in the impasse: Google Inc.(GOOG).
- A slate of dark films nominated for this year’s Academy Awards casts a pall over the Oscar ceremony, with the telecast turning in the lowest ratings in its history, according to data released Monday by ABC.
- Top market-timers still bullish. Their confidence bodes well for stocks intermediate-term.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Why Cisco(CSCO) Is a Buy.
- Google(GOOG) Now Britain’s Top Tech Brand. The Web search giant climbed from the No. 5 position it held in the Superbrands rankings a year ago, surpassing Microsoft(MSFT) and the BBC.

CNNMoney.com:
- Ivy League university – latest major college to give parents a break – to give grants to families making less than $100,000 and drop tuition for those under $60,000.

Forbes.com:
- Nielsen Online said Monday Google(GOOG) topped January’s search rankings with 4.22 billion queries, or a 56.9% share. Yahoo(YHOO) came in second for the month with 1.41 billion searches, or a 19% share, followed by Microsoft’s(MSFT) MSN/Windows Live with a 12.1% share.
- Hedge funds still pose a potential systemic risk to the economy, despite having improved their management and disclosure practices, according to a study released Monday by US congressional investigators.

Reuters:
- Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin on Monday defended the central bank’s emphasis on core inflation, saying an emphasis on less volatile prices produces a stronger economy in the long run.

Financial Times:
- Opprobrium was poured on Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Monday amid allegations that an aide had circulated a photograph showing Barack Obama dressed as a Somali Muslim elder.
- US share prices staged a late rally on Monday after S&P’s affirmed the top-notch credit ratings of beleaguered bond insurers MBIA(MBI) and Ambac(ABK) and said MBIA was no longer at risk of a downgrade.

TimesOnline:
- The latest buying opportunity. If a bailout for the bond insurers is finalized, this could well mark the turning point in the global financial crisis. In terms of market psychology, the view that “this crisis is different from every other” is really just an echo of the cry “this time is different” that is always heard at the top of a bull market.

Financial Post:
- Web sites in the Google(GOOG) family have finally taken the top spot in the comScore Canadian web rankings.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (JWN), raised target to $45.
- Reiterated Buy on (CVH), target $74.
- Added (CSCO) to Recommended List.
- Reiterated Buy on (HON), target $70.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (EP)/.29
- (FWLT)/.76
- (HD)/.43
- (NBL)/1.62
- (ODP)/.17
- (RSH)/.72
- (AZO)/1.62
- (CBS)/.51
- (KBR)/.32
- (ESV)/1.55
- (FTO)/.47
- (TGT)/1.22
- (DISH)/.47
- (KWK)/.24
- (HNZ)/.67
- (PZZA)/.43
- (DWA)/.72
- (OSG)/.58
- (ADSK)/.54
- (BID)/1.45
- (DPZ)/.27
- (FMCN)/.49
- (M)/1.61
- (CBRL)/.70

Upcoming Splits
- (RBN) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for January is estimated to rise .4% versus a -.3% decline in December.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for January is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in December.

10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to fall to 82.0 versus a reading of 87.9 in January.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kohn speaking, weekly retail sales reports, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, (SO) analyst meeting, (NICE) analyst meeting, (XTO) analyst conference, HIMSS Conference, BMO Global Metals/Mining Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium and Merrill Communications Services Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by real estate and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted by Biotech, Energy, REIT, Retail and Construction Shares

Posted by Gary .....at 4:15 PM

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GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
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After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Bond Insurer Angst, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

Posted by Gary .....at 3:33 PM

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Software longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average, despite gains in the major averages. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 2.5% today, but remains relatively high at 23.5. The ISE Sentiment Index is a below average 111.0 and the total put/call is a slightly above-average .95 today. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above-average all day and is currently 1.05. (ILMN) is hitting a new record high today. The stock is extended short-term, but I still see substantial upside in the shares over the intermediate-term and would use any meaningful pullback to add to my long position. NYSE short interest surged 4.8% during the first two weeks of February, according to the exchange, to a new record high of 14,370,000,000 shares. NYSE short interest is moving in a parabolic fashion as the "US negativity bubble" continues to inflate, rising a mind-boggling 80% over just the last year. NYSE short interest is now more extended from its four-month moving-average than at any other time since record keeping began 17 years ago. This is a huge positive for the longer-term outlook for US stocks, in my opinion. (ABK) and (MBI) are rising 16% and 22%, respectively, on today’s S&P news. I am actually surprised the (XLF) isn’t up more on the report, however it is trading at session highs. The S&P 500 is currently breaking out to the upside of the wedge that so many technical traders have been focusing on of late. This should give this rally some legs. Nikkei futures indicate an +65 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +48 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering, diminishing bond insurer angst and bargain hunting.

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:12 PM

Bloomberg:
- Axa Investment Managers, part of Europe’s second-largest insurer, is setting up a $1 billion fund for trading in March to buy collateralized debt obligations at reduced prices because of the credit crisis. The Paris-based insurer joins GSO Capital Partners, the hedge fund being bought by Blackstone Group, and Citadel Investment Group in forming funds to buy debt infected by subprime mortgages.
- The risk of defaults by Asia-Pacific companies and governments fell on optimism Ambac Financial(ABK) may avoid a credit downgrade. The Markit iTraxx Japan index declined 8 basis points to 101.
- Gold is falling the most in almost two weeks after the US said it would back “limited” sales of bullion reserves by the International Monetary Fund, the third-largest holder of the precious metal.
- Shares of the 691 US companies with non-investment grade bond ratings have climbed 5.3% in the past month, which could foreshadow an economic recovery.
- Visa Inc. may raise as much as $17 billion in what would be the biggest US IPO as the largest credit-card network tries to replicate the success of MasterCard(MA).
- US banks and securities firms have “manageable” exposure to financial guarantors, although some proposals to restructure the companies could have negative effects, Fitch Ratings said. Citigroup(C), Merrill Lynch(MER) and UBS AG, which already have negative rating outlooks from Fitch, could face additional pressure on their credit ratings because of exposure to financial guarantors.
- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan criticized Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama for taking “anti-competitive” policy positions.
- GTx Inc.(GTXI) said its experimental drug reduced side effects of prostate-cancer therapy in a trial. The company rose the most ever in NY trading.

Wall Street Journal:
- Harbinger Capital Partners and Firebrand Partners, the private-equity firms that nominated four candidates to the board of NY Times(NYT), raised their stake in the publisher. The group, which holds a stake of more than 15% in the NY Times, is trying to force the company to sell parts of its business and to invest more in its online activities.
- The London Metal Exchange’s steel-futures program may give producers, suppliers and consumers a way to hedge costs as steel prices get more unpredictable. A test program starts today and contracts for the Mediterranean and for the Far East will officially start April 28.

NY Times:
- Walt Disney’s(DIS) ABC television network and Cox Communications(COX) are starting an on-demand video service to let viewers watch shows anytime they want, a move to fight the popularity of digital video recorders.
- Adobe Systems(ADBE), the biggest maker of graphic design software, will release a program today allowing people to use applications interchangeably on the Internet or offline at their personal computers.
- Akoo Builds Remote-Control Cell-Phone Message System.

Morningstar:
- The use of hydrogen fuel in road transport is a realistic alternative to fossil fuels and could cut oil consumption by 40% by 2050, a European report said.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:35 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -.06%

Sector Underperformers:

Banks (-1.62%), Airlines (-1.53%) and I-Banks (-1.19%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SYNT and ERTS