BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, July 31, 2015

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 7:10 PM

S&P 500 2,103.84 +1.16%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 6:53 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,103.84 +1.16%

DJIA 17,689.86 +.69%

NASDAQ 5,128.28 +.78%

Russell 2000 1,238.68 +1.03%

S&P 500 High Beta 32.16 +1.13%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.85 +.09%

Wilshire 5000 21,965.0 +1.20%

Russell 1000 Growth 1,024.55 +1.24%

Russell 1000 Value 1,012.87 +1.17%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 515.20 +1.09%

Solactive US Cyclical 128.73 +2.49%

Morgan Stanley Technology 1,066.35 +1.06%

Transports 8,391.96 +3.96%

Utilities 583.94 +3.77%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 120.42 -.11%

MSCI Emerging Markets 37.13 +1.03%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,208.03 -.64%

HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,006.40 +.53%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,613 +.95%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -217 +286

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.22 unch.

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 234,419 -4.05%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,694,436 +1.54%

Total Put/Call 1.09 -21.58%

OEX Put/Call 7.31 +609.71%

ISE Sentiment 70.0 +7.69%

NYSE Arms 1.78 +17.88%

Volatility(VIX) 12.12 -11.79%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.93 -2.59%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.31 -.85%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.36 +2.52%

Smart Money Flow Index 16,914.95 +.87%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.648 Trillion -.02%

ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.201 Billion

AAII % Bulls 21.1 -35.1%

AAII % Bears 40.7 +59.0%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 202.57 -1.20%

Crude Oil 46.79 -2.19%

Reformulated Gasoline 184.10 +.63%

Natural Gas 2.72 -2.23%

Heating Oil 158.40 -2.98%

Gold 1,094.20 -.40%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 151.72 +.01%

Copper 235.0 -1.59%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 236.67 USD/Ton -4.28%

China Iron Ore Spot 53.41 USD/Ton +3.87%

Lumber 252.10 -5.4%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,055.92 -2.32%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .2% -10.0 basis points

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1217 +8.18%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.09 +.16%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.4 -1.0 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 +12.7 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 +3.1 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 62.0% chance of no change, 38.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/17

# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.76 -7.93%

US Dollar Index 97.24 +.03%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.19 +.04%

Yield Curve 152.0 -6.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.19% -7.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.447 Trillion -.34%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.16 +4.30%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 237.0 +1.31%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.39 +1.40%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.94 +2.44%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 293.35 -1.18%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.06 -2.19%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 676.49 -6.07%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 337.27 +.85%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.1 +.40%

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74% -2.0 basis points

TED Spread 24.0 -2.5 basis points

2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 -1.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 unch.

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.87 -1.52%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,582.0 -2.38%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.66 +3.12%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 318.20 -.85%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 98.50 +1.5 basis points

M1 Money Supply $3.018 Trillion +.17%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,058.50 +1.0%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 274,750 -4,250

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7%+10.0 basis points

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.98% -6 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 376.60 +.77%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.5 -1.9 points

Weekly Retail Sales +1.20% -10.0 basis points

Nationwide Gas $2.66/gallon -.07/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 1,100 +1.28%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 818.85 -2.37%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -17.65%

Rail Freight Carloads 270,952 -1.06%

Best Performing Style

Mid-Cap Value +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Leading Sectors

Homebuilders +5.1%

Tobacco +4.6%

Road & Rail +4.3%

Utilities +3.9%

Steel +3.8%

Lagging Sectors

I-Banking -.9%

Gold & Silver -1.9%

Oil Tankers -3.1%

Social Media -3.9%

Coal -5.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)

SFG, STRA, CYT, P, LOXO, NTGR, BECN, MSTR, BWLD, ATHN, LOGM, PEGA, WWE, SAIA, PNRA, HURN, NUVA, CTLT, WAB, CTXS, ATRC, FDP, QLIK, VRSN, CLFD, VNTV, RGR, GPN, PPBI, RUBI, BLDR, IBCP, GWB, JNPR and PRAH

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (34)

HMST, MINI, GRUB, PEB, CRI, CVLT, MCRN, ELLI, CKEC, STRZA, FOE, POL, MGLN, COF, NANO, ABAX, TGI, CPHD, WFM, BDC, TWTR, DMRC, CEB, GNCA, MYL, TRIP, DATA, GIMO, BIIB, UIS, YELP, SPNC, FMI and ESPR

Weekly Charts

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, China Bubble-Bursting Worries, Commodity Declines, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 2:34 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Slightly Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 12.32 +1.57%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.44 +.49%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.40 +1.95%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.98 +1.13%

ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -8.14%

Total Put/Call .99 +32.0%

NYSE Arms 1.75 +30.86%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.14 -1.54%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,582.0 +.64%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.67 -1.77%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.39 +1.87%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.94 +.80%

Emerging Market CDS Index 316.90 +1.23%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.08 +.11%

2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 -.25 basis point

TED Spread 24.0 -.5 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.

Yield Curve 153.0 -1.0 basis point

China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.41/Metric Tonne -4.01%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.4 +.9 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 +3.9 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 +1.4 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -1.0 basis point

# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.76 -.52

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan

China A50 Futures: Indicating -309 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/biotech sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 1:56 PM

Bloomberg:

Greek Financial Markets Will Reopen Monday With Restrictions. Greece’s financial markets will reopen with some limitations to trading, the nation’s Finance Ministry said. Greek traders will be able buy stocks only if they use new money such as funds transferred from abroad, cash-only deposits or from money earned from the future sale of stocks, the Finance Ministry said in a decree on Friday. Foreign investors will be excluded from all restrictions, provided that they were already active in trading before the imposition of capital controls last month. The Athens Stock Exchange will reopen on Aug. 3, according to a separate e-mail statement from the bourse. That will follow a five-week shutdown, the longest since a stretch of almost six weeks that ended in January 1973.
Junk Bond Rally Loses Steam in Europe as Global Sell-Off Deepens. Europe, the only positive area for the global high-yield market this month, is succumbing to a global sell-off. Junk bonds in Europe lost 0.44 percent since July 21, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The securities returned about 1 percent this month, the most since February, as comparable global benchmarks suffered losses. Slumping oil prices, wild gyrations in Chinese equities and concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates reversed a European rally that had been triggered by improvements in the Greek debt crisis. Investors withdrew $1.4 billion from high-yield bond funds globally in the week through July 29, the most in four weeks, Bank of America Corp. said in a report on Friday.
China Auto Sales Will Tank if Stocks Enter Bear Market. China’s vehicle sales may post its first annual decline in more than 17 years if the stock market continues to slide, according to the China Automobile Dealers Association. Vehicle sales will tank if an equity rout continues, and expand 1 percent to 2 percent this year if stock prices stabilize and the economy recovers, said Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of industry trade group. “A stock market plunge hurts consumer confidence,” Luo said in a phone interview Friday. “People wouldn’t want to spend on cars when the market keeps on declining. Dealers are sacrificing their margins and giving out big incentives to help attract buyers.”
Brazil Real Extends Worst Monthly Drop Since March on Fiscal Woe. The real fell to a 12-year low and extended its biggest monthly decline since March as budget reports added to concern that Brazil will be lowered to junk. Standard & Poor’s cited a slowing economy and fiscal turmoil Tuesday when it changed its outlook to negative on the nation’s credit rating, already at the lowest level of investment grade. The central bank’s decision the next day to avoid further increases in interest rates limited the desirability of the nation’s assets to global investors looking for higher yields. The real dropped 1.3 to 3.4155 per dollar at 11:53 a.m. in Sao Paulo, the weakest level on a closing basis since March 2003. It has fallen 9 percent in July, the worst performance among 31 major currencies after the ruble.
Asian Currencies in Steepest Drop in 10 Months as Growth Slows. Asian currencies weakened the most in 10 months in July as slowing economic growth and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates spurred outflows. South Korea’s won led declines, falling 4.7 percent in its biggest monthly drop since 2011. Thailand’s baht lost 4.2 percent and Taiwan’s dollar depreciated 1.9 percent. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 major currencies excluding Japan’s yen, fell 1.4 percent. Taiwanese gross domestic product increased by the least since 2012 last quarter, a report showed on Friday, and expansion in South Korea was the slowest in more than two years. A gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell to a 15-month low in July, fueling concern a slowdown in Asia’s largest economy hasn’t bottomed out yet.
Russian Ruble, Oil Double Down on Economic Drag. (video)
Why Latin America's Economy Won't Grow This Year. (video)
Puerto Rico Muni Index Falls to Six-Year Low as Default Looms. An index that tracks the performance of Puerto Rico’s municipal debt fell to a six-year low with the commonwealth on the verge of defaulting on some of its obligations for the first time. The Standard & Poor’s Municipal Bond Puerto Rico index closed at 151.97 Thursday, the least since the wake of the global financial crisis in July 2009. The commonwealth’s Public Finance Corp. will likely fail to make $58 million in bond payments due Aug. 1, the first default since Puerto Rico was ceded to the U.S. following the Spanish-American War. Government officials say they can’t make the payment because the legislature didn’t appropriate the funds last month for the current fiscal year.
European Stocks Cap Best Monthly Advance in Five Amid Earnings. European stocks were little changed amid earnings reports, completing their biggest monthly rally since February. Miners and energy companies fell as commodities extended a monthly plunge. Spain’s CaixaBank SA dropped 2.4 percent after cutting its net interest income growth forecast for 2015. BNP Paribas SA climbed 2.9 percent as France’s largest bank swung to its biggest quarterly profit in more than three years. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained less than 0.1 percent to 396.37 at the close of trading.
The U.S. Economy Is on Track to Finish a Decade Without Significant Growth. It would take a miracle for growth to reach 3 percent this year, marking a decade without it. The U.S. economy keeps chugging ahead, more like a tortoise than a hare. At this rate, it won't be anywhere near where economists expect it to be at the end of the year. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.3 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department figures published Thursday. While that was an improvement over the 0.6 percent pace in the first three months of the year, it was less than economists had forecast. The new figures all but assure GDP for the year yet again will fail to reach the 3-percent mark, the pace economists generally say is needed in order for the average American to really feel it. ``This has been a uniquely slow period of growth that's delivered very little for low- and middle-income households,'' said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington and former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden. ``We need to grow faster and more equitably.''
Exit From Leveraged-Credit Funds Seen as Sign of Things to Come. When you use borrowed money to make a bet, you can win big and you can lose big, as some investors in closed-end debt funds are finding out right now. Shares of such funds are plunging way below the value of their underlying assets, with the biggest discounts since the U.S. financial crisis. Traders seem to just want to get this stuff off their books, even at a painful price. At best, these funds are just a small corner of the $39 trillion U.S. debt market and their suffering is perhaps a temporary phenomenon that doesn’t reflect broader problems. At worst, it’s a harbinger of a more significant selloff ahead in debt markets that have swelled to unprecedented sizes on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus.

ZeroHedge:

Telegraph:

Greece news live: Tsipras says he ordered Varoufakis 'Plan B' as Greece on course for deepest recession in four years. Prime Minister defends his former minister after IMF reveal they are unwilling to provide any money for a new rescue right now.
China's stock market crash: five numbers you need to know.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:50 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value -.09%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Energy -1.03% 2) Oil Service -1.02% 3) I-Banks -.75%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

INT, CPSI, TAL, MERC, LNKD, Q, TG, RLGY, HBI, OUTR, OMCL, FMI, SQI, CMPR, CRAY, DGI, WMC, AXL, GIL, SAM, SYNA, TASR, FEYE, FLR, BDC, IXYS, XOM, MDXG, CVX, MEMP, TMST, WMC, LEG, KMT, BCOR, KCG, MCRN, SUNE, ROVI and INT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: