Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.06 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.25%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of ntoe

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Black Friday retail results and the German Unemployment rate could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 56.6% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 94 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 58.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.7%
• Vix 11.6 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .69 -34.3%
• TRIN/Arms .81 -27.7%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.22 -.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (DAKT)/.16
• (DE)/2.14
• (FRO)/.03

After the Close:

• None of ntoe

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 3Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a prior estimate of a +1.9% gain.
• 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a prior estimate of a +2.9% gain.
• 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.7% gain.
• 3Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a prior estimate of a +2.2% gain.
• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to fall -.9% versus a -1.2% decline in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in Sept.
• Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.6% decline in Sept. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 221K versus 227K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1691K versus 1695K prior.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 43.2 in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• The PCE Core MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Sept. 
• Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.5% gain in Sept.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Retail Trade report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the $32B 7Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Activity, Buyout Speculation, Short-Covering, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.82 -.42%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.76 +.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.99 -.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.39 -.79%

• ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -81
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +13.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.56 +62.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.47 -1.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 618.0 +.60%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.94 -1.93%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +2.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.09 -.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 203.04 -.16%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.03 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread -.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 34.25 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.23 -.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% unch.

• Yield Curve .16+1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 84.08 USD/Metric Tonne -1.59%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.1 +1.9 basis points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.50 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.20 +.6 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
• 11.7% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 25.4% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +46 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.8% 2) Computer Hardware -1.7% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ZYXI, BSM, AMBA, HPE, BECN, PANW, DLTR and MOV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLTR 2) DKS 3) PANW 4) BBY 5) VMW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AIRG 2) MOV 3) MTSC 4) FMCC 5) IRBT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Restaurants +1.1% 3) Retail +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CCXI, DKS, ARWR, NTNX, BBY, DTIL, BUYL, YMAB, DY, ALEC, BBBY, GBT, RVLV, FIZZ, EVER, ALNY, MNTA, CG, ICPT, USCR, NSTG, ALLO, GES, INMD, AAN, AXNX, FOE, HRL, ABMD, INTU, VAC and CMG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DKS 2) DLTR 3) BBY 4) MOS 5) ADI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NTNX 2) DKS 3) CCXI 4) DY 5)BBY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume