Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Worries, Less Dovish Than Expected FOMC Statement, US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.76 +1.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.24 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.86 +.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.0 +3.39%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 -2.05%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +11.49%
  • NYSE Arms .60 +11.47
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.93 +.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,851.0 +2.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.57 -1.46%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.57 -2.93%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.77 -.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 377.08 -.88%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.08 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.31 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 117.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.43/Metric Tonne +3.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.3 +6.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.30 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.40% +4.0 basis points
  • 21.1% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 27.2% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -64 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +51 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -142 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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