Friday, January 22, 2016

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.49 -12.44%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.89 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.06 -3.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.98 +.63%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -23.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -7.34%
  • NYSE Arms 1.56 +82.42% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.93 -4.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,815.0 -7.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.15 -3.13%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.23 -11.73%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.08 -2.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 378.21 -2.86%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.07 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 34.25 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.27 +.91%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .29% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 119.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.20/Metric Tonne +2.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.8 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -17.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.34% +1.0 basis point
  • 26.3% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 31.9% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +261 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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