Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Commodity/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.66 -6.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.34 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.78 -.42%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.06 +.96%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 178.0 +109.4%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -13.59%
  • NYSE Arms .43 -71.58% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.35 -2.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,808.0 +3.74%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.86 -1.16%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.15 -1.51%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.0 -1.88%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 379.95 -1.80%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.09 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.33 +.5%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 116.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.08/Metric Tonne -1.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.4 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.60 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.36% +2.0 basis points
  • 21.6% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 27.7% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +320 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +131 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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