Thursday, January 28, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.30 -3.46%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.98 +.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.91 +.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.67 -3.68%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -17.99%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -11.70%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +83.41% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 102.92 -1.92%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,765.0 -4.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.25 +5.34%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.95 -3.17%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.11 -1.22%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 370.47 -1.61%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.14 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 31.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.86 +.8%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% unch.
  • Yield Curve 117.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.92/Metric Tonne -1.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.3 -14.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.50 -9.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.6 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.41% +1.0 basis point
  • 14.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 20.9% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +109 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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