Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Technical Buying, Calming China Fears, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.33 -8.11%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.40 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.95 +.42%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.89 -2.23%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +86.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 -8.04%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +46.22% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +.97%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,715.0 +5.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.09 +1.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.89 +.22%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.40 +.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 379.59 +.61%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.32 -.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.47 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 118.0 -5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.19/Metric Tonne -.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.1 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.40 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.10 -8.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% -2.0 basis points
  • 36.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 42.6% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +171 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -121 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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