Friday, January 08, 2016

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Emerging Market Currency Worries, Oil Decline, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.05 -3.76%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.09 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.93 +2.76%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.82 +2.27%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 49.0 -19.67%
  • Total Put/Call 1.23 -11.51%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +10.40% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.53 +2.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,551.0 -2.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.90 +3.32%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.17 -.75%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.31 -3.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 375.10 +1.93%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.60 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.90 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 119.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.13/Metric Tonne -1.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.3 +8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.5 -3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.10 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% -2.0 basis points
  • 40.5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 46.0% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -277 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -337 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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