Thursday, January 07, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.15 +22.29%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.19 +.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.67 +3.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.26 +1.96%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 60.0 -17.81%
  • Total Put/Call 1.33 +31.68%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 -41.52% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.44 +2.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,597.0 +2.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.26 +1.45%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.30 +5.49%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.05 +3.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 368.10 +2.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.73 -.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.08 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% unch.
  • Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.65/Metric Tonne -.61%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.8 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.9 +11.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.40 -3.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52% -4.0 basis points
  • 35.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 42.2% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -182 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -178 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -117 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

No comments: