Friday, January 15, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Market Currency Fears, Oil Decline, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.3 +22.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.57 -.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.01 +2.74%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.83 +5.88%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 60.0 -26.83%
  • Total Put/Call 1.31 +29.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.94 +214.46% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 109.87 +6.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,833.0 +1.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.31 +4.19%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.19 +2.28%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 80.67 +4.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 399.56 +4.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.90 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.17 -.78%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .23% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 119.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.12/Metric Tonne +2.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.8 -9.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.60 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.10 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.4% -6.0 basis points
  • 27.6% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 32.9% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -452 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -379 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -94 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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