Monday, July 25, 2016

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Terror Fears, Oil Decline, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.57 +12.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.70 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.98 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.27 +3.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -21.65%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +19.75%
  • NYSE Arms 1.49 +59.71
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.46 +2.80%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 733.0 +.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.91 +.99%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.88 -.27%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.17 +1.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 256.42 +1.53%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.11 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -50.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.92 -.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 84.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.86/Metric Tonne +1.77%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.60 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.8 +2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.10 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% -1.0 basis point
  • 28.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 29.5% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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