Friday, July 15, 2016

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Terrorism Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Energy/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.65 -1.33%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.03 -.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.69 -.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.30 +3.90%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -3.88%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +38.71%
  • NYSE Arms 1.68 +168.0
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.43 +.13%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 715.0 -1.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.68 +2.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.59 -.04%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 46.81 -1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 251.52 +1.55%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.75 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 -4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.84 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% unch.
  • Yield Curve 89.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.42/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.90 +6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.5 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.20 +4.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% +2.0 basis points
  • 22.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 22.7% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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