Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Earnings Outlook Worries, Restaurant/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.08 +1.63%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.07 -1.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.93 -1.27%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +8.0%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +3.30%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -34.56
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.46 +1.48%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 753.0 +2.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.35 +3.70%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.65 -.89%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 49.0 +.71%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 260.53 +1.74%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.26 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 -3.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 43.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.5 -3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.79 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.50 -3.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.08/Metric Tonne +2.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.10 +4.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.4 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.50 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% unch.
  • 28.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 29.5% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +67 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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