Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.66 +1.77%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.04 -.63%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.94 +1.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.81 +.99%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -41.03%
  • Total Put/Call .93 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +58.84
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.49 +.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 723.0 +.81%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.62 +3.13%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.80 +1.44%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.93 +1.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 255.64 +.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.84 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.40 -.63%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 87.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.02/Metric Tonne -1.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.90 +2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.48% -3.0 basis points
  • 21.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 22.7% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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