Monday, July 18, 2016

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Buyout Speculation, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.39 -2.21%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.74 +1.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.90 +2.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.54 -1.68%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +33.62%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +10.71%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -33.12
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.47 -.34%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 715.0 -.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.62 -2.11%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.42 +3.20%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.54 +1.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 253.84 +.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.89 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.88 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 90.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.86/Metric Tonne -2.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.10 +3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.9 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.20 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% unch.
  • 19.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 19.2% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +198 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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