Friday, July 08, 2016

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.33 -9.69%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 116.03 -.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 -.30%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.33 -4.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +7.06%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -2.38%
  • NYSE Arms .38 -68.89
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.72 -4.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 766.0 -2.88%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.14 -7.27%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.95 -1.14%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.91 -.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 258.97 -4.56%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.23 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.35 +.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 76.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.17/Metric Tonne +.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.3 +8.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.4 -2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.60 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% unch.
  • 11.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 11.4% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +329 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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