Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.79 -1.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.78 +.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 +.90%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.71 +2.12%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +18.3%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -11.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.18 +5.61
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.29 -1.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 725.0 +.40%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.44 -5.62%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.49 -1.12%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.46 -1.09%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 253.56 +.13%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.91 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.50 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.33 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 87.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.75/Metric Tonne -.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.60 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.1 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49% +1.0 basis point
  • 24.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 26.2% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +228 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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