Monday, October 01, 2018

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Commodity/Industrial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.9 -1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.24 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.16 -1.84%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.23 -2.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -31.5%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -7.69%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -49.49%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.92 -2.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 381.0 -1.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.55 +1.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 282.75 +15.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 8.83 -.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 193.27 +.10%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.65 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 19.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.95 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.20% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 25.75 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.03 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.70 +3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.6 -4.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -1.0 basis point
  • 71.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.7% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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