Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Asia Stocks Roiled as Wall St. Woes Spread to Debt. Asian stocks are back in bear-market territory after another dive on Wall Street, where concerns have spread to the corporate-bond market. Investors are also contending with no obvious havens, with Treasuries little changed so far this week and gold weaker. Equity benchmarks retreated across the region though U.S. futures edged higher. Oil tumbling toward $53 a barrel weighed on energy companies, while a plunge in Apple Inc.’s stock hit suppliers in Asia. All major U.S. benchmarks fell more than 1.5 percent Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index briefly slid 10 percent below its September record close before clawing back just above the threshold. Two-year Treasury yields are up slightly this week, suggesting no sea-change in views on the Federal Reserve’s path of tightening. Japan’s Topix index fell 1 percent as of 10:45 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.5 percent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 percent. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent.      
Wall St. Journal:
Zero Hedge:     
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 +4.0 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.04 -.06%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.35%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Before the Open:
  • (DE)/2.44
  • (MOV)/1.12
  • (DAKT)/.18
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall -2.6% versus a +.7% gain in September.
  • Preliminary Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in September.
  • Preliminary Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for October are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in September.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 215K versus 216K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1650K versus 1676K the prior week.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in September.
  • Existing Home Sales for October are estimated to rise to 5.2M versus 5.15M in September.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,860,750 barrels versus a +10,270,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -444,000 barrels versus a -1,411,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -2,665,180K versus a -3,589,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.08% versus a +.1% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Nov. and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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