Friday, November 02, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Trade War Worries, Election Uncertainty, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.99 +8.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.99 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.20 +.89%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.325 +8.39%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +12.37%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +13.25%
  • NYSE Arms 1.35 +11.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.45 -1.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 532.0 +2.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.18 -2.30%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 289.25 -9.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.91 -4.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 193.85 -3.01%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.46 -1.39%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.75 +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.25 +3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.97 +.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.31% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 30.50 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 70.84 USD/Metric Tonne +.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +5.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.90 +2.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 +2.0 basis points
  • 74.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 75.6% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -353 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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