Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.39 -3.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.30 +.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.08 -.88%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.39 -3.42%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +9.89%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -2.27%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -3.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.29 -4.51%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 693.0 -1.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.03 +.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 290.75 -3.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.30 -.87%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 209.70 -4.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.30 +.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.75 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 +3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.19 +.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.38% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 24.5 +1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.91 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.90 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.0 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +3.0 basis points
  • 80.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 90.0% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +202 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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